The Economic Bust Is On Schedule
The 10yr-2yr Yield Curve indicates that the economic bust is on schedule No way did I know that Trump was going to shove it into gear so actively like this.…
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April 9, 2025
Recession Indicator? Harvest Those Eyeballs, MSM
The media are muck raking again, as the Fed's favorite "recession indicator" flashes (bullshit, MSM) This is not to say that I don't agree that a recession is coming. I…
February 26, 2025
Musk and the Bond Market; It’s Not You, Elon
Musk and the bond market are in a convenient alignment, but the bond market situation has been in progress since 2023 Our (NFTRH) view has been for falling inflation signals…
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February 25, 2025
Gold Ratios Progressing, Gold Miners to Benefit
Gold Ratios are indicating our projected countercycle is slowly coming to be and that is to the benefit of the gold mining industry Gold ratios such as those to Oil/Energy…
January 31, 2025
“I think it’s pretty clear we’ve avoided a recession”
Jerome Powell: "I think it's pretty clear we've avoided a recession" In response to a media member, who at Wednesday's post-FOMC press conference, asked Jerome Powell if he thinks we've…
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December 19, 2024
Yield Curve Steepener Continues
As nominal yields resume rising, the signal is an inflationary yield curve steepener just lately, but not necessarily going forward As for the dominant theme of the yield curve steepener…
December 13, 2024
10yr-2yr Yield Curve Still Signaling “all’s not well”
The 10yr-2yr yield curve remains on its new steepener The macro is grinding along, subject to daily noise that drives nominal yields up or down (today's noise du jour is…
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December 11, 2024
Time Target Acquired, Election on Deck
Our time target for the bull market will be registered on election day Of course, there must be a (+/-) tolerance built into the time target because who among us…
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November 1, 2024
“Don’t Fight the Fed” or Fight the Fed?
"Don't Fight the Fed" is a bromide you might want to ignore on this cycle This article is inspired by a headline I saw in the media while checking out…
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October 21, 2024
Trends Up, Bull On, Risk High (Macro Discussion)
The opening segment from this week's edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 829: Trends Up, Bull On, Risk High (Macro Discussion) The segment’s title might also read “Another…
September 30, 2024
“Bond Market Yield Curve Returns to Normal”? Signals for Gold, Stocks, Economy
The financial media appear to once again be leading the public astray about the Yield Curve situation The media pounded and pounded the yield curve's inversion as a signal about…
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September 20, 2024
A Tale of Two Yield Curves
If the 2yr yield is leading the 3 mo. T-bill yield (it is), the 10-3 mo. yield curve will follow the 10-2 yield curve I've used this chart repeatedly to…
September 18, 2024
Yield Curve: Slowly I Toined…
The 10yr-2yr yield curve has un-inverted; yet in the media? Crickets Slowly I toined [cue Brooklyn accent], step by step... The 10yr-2yr yield curve un-inverted last week, turning from inversion…
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September 17, 2024
Don’t Sleep on the 10-2yr Yield Curve
The 10-2yr Yield Curve has un-inverted In a move that is getting all too little airplay in the financial media, the 10-2 yield curve has ticked positive and is currently…
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September 12, 2024