USD and Gold; what gives?
USD and gold have both been firm (this morning) against a steepening yield curve It's a deflationary yield curve steepener, as evidenced by both the 10yr and 2yr yields dropping…
2 Comments
March 24, 2023
Deflationary Yield Curve Steepener?
A deflationary yield curve steepener is hinted at but not yet activated How do we know that the recent spike is a would-be deflationary yield curve steepener? We know because…
Comments Off on Deflationary Yield Curve Steepener?
March 20, 2023
NFTRH+; important macro update
The 10yr-2yr yield curve is spiking impulsively and unlike the steepener into 2021 it ain't inflationary. We know that because nominal Treasury yields are dropping, not rising. If this continues…
Comments Off on NFTRH+; important macro update
March 15, 2023
Two macro market signals positive… for now
Excerpted from this week's edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 747, a look at two currently positive macro market signals. When they turn it will be time for…
Comments Off on Two macro market signals positive… for now
March 6, 2023
10-2yr Yield Curve: a hint
The 10yr-2yr Yield Curve is hinting to steepen A hint sure is not a trend change. But a hint is a hint that is still in play. If the spread…
October 24, 2022
NFTRH+; Yield Curve
A snapshot of the 10-2yr yield curve this morning as long-term rates appear to be blowing off to the upside and short-term rates drop. In other words, bonds are getting…
October 21, 2022
![Read more about the article Yield Curve: Peak Fed? [w/ edit]](https://i0.wp.com/nftrh.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/indicators.jpeg?fit=500%2C400&ssl=1)
Yield Curve: Peak Fed? [w/ edit]
As per one of my favorite 'not taking the analysis too seriously' market memes... ...we note that global casino patrons are good and pissed, scared and downright apoplectic. Especially overseas…
October 18, 2022
Yield Curve steepener in play?
The 10yr-2yr yield spread has taken out its previous short-term high Thus, it's certainly a candidate to begin the steepener that seems only a matter of (diminishing) time. Notice how…
September 6, 2022
Yields up, 10yr-2yr Yield Curve still in steepening posture
The 10yr-2yr Yield Curve continues to posture for steepening The recent secondary inversion (initial inversion was August, 2019) continues to look like it has birthed a bouncing baby steepener. The…
May 31, 2022
The new non-inflationary curve steepener
10-2yr Yield Curve steepening, but not due to inflation While the headlines continue to blare inflation 24/7, an indicator of the 2020-2021 inflation diverges the hysteria. Sure, the yield curve…
Comments Off on The new non-inflationary curve steepener
May 26, 2022
New trend being set on the 10-2yr Yield Curve
Yield curve steepening, but there's more to the story The yield curve can steepen under inflationary pressure (e.g. 2020) or deflationary pressure (e.g. 2008). The most recent steepener was inflationary.…
May 9, 2022
New Curve steepener still inflationary (duh)
Yield curve steepens again, under inflationary pressure Look, if we are going to kill the hysteria of the day it is not going to be killed in a day. It…
Comments Off on New Curve steepener still inflationary (duh)
May 6, 2022
Get ready for the Yield Curve Steepener
Yield Curve continues to steepen after the recent inversion I do believe that we have ourselves a Yield Curve steepener on our hands. Here is the new steepener in the…
April 11, 2022
NFTRH+; a big move in this key macro indicator
The trend remains down in the 10-2yr yield curve, but I'd say a 92% jump from inversion in the steepening direction is notable and demanding of our attention going forward.…
April 7, 2022