Excerpted from this week's edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 747, a look at two currently positive macro market signals. When they turn it will be time for…
The 10yr-2yr Yield Curve is hinting to steepen A hint sure is not a trend change. But a hint is a hint that is still in play. If the spread…
A snapshot of the 10-2yr yield curve this morning as long-term rates appear to be blowing off to the upside and short-term rates drop. In other words, bonds are getting…
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As per one of my favorite 'not taking the analysis too seriously' market memes... ...we note that global casino patrons are good and pissed, scared and downright apoplectic. Especially overseas…
The 10yr-2yr yield spread has taken out its previous short-term high Thus, it's certainly a candidate to begin the steepener that seems only a matter of (diminishing) time. Notice how…
The 10yr-2yr Yield Curve continues to posture for steepening The recent secondary inversion (initial inversion was August, 2019) continues to look like it has birthed a bouncing baby steepener. The…
10-2yr Yield Curve steepening, but not due to inflation While the headlines continue to blare inflation 24/7, an indicator of the 2020-2021 inflation diverges the hysteria. Sure, the yield curve…
Yield curve steepening, but there's more to the story The yield curve can steepen under inflationary pressure (e.g. 2020) or deflationary pressure (e.g. 2008). The most recent steepener was inflationary.…
Yield curve steepens again, under inflationary pressure Look, if we are going to kill the hysteria of the day it is not going to be killed in a day. It…
Yield Curve continues to steepen after the recent inversion I do believe that we have ourselves a Yield Curve steepener on our hands. Here is the new steepener in the…
The trend remains down in the 10-2yr yield curve, but I'd say a 92% jump from inversion in the steepening direction is notable and demanding of our attention going forward.…
Yield Curve inverts deeper than August, 2019 Like the larger media this tiny little spec within the media reports the news to you. The 10yr-2yr yield curve has inverted (ref.…
Only a few ticks away from an inverted Yield Curve With the free bond market driving up 2 year yields while the Fed holds out from going hawkish (hawk talk…
Bank sector negatively diverges long-term yields As long-term yields rise to tick the 2.5% to 2.7% target zone on the 30yr, the Bank sector seems to have other ideas. Like…