Metals Commitments of Traders are contrary bullish
The gold price chart is looking bad technically. But the gold CoT alignment, especially where the little guy (blue) is concerned, is contrary bullish, or at least constructive. Charts from CotBase.
Silver CoT is in great shape, while the silver price chart err… isn’t. There are long-term support levels (not shown on this chart) we are using, however, to guide the silver view.
Doctor Copper has been bombed lately. Bombed into a stellar contrary positive CoT alignment. Commercial traders are eating copper while large and small Specs have been barfing it.
Palladium, he of the big move on Friday, has had a contrary positive CoT all along as we have been periodically noting in NFTRH. This is at least as good as copper above, with a better chart to boot.
The Platinum price is bearish like copper, but here is another constructive CoT situation, albeit not as compelling as the two directly above. It’s more like silver’s just flat out contrary positive chart.
Things to remember:
- CoT is just one vantage point into a market, along with other sentiment readings. Macro fundamentals, seasonal and TA also need consideration.
- When you hear someone talking about Commercial “smart money” when humping a particular view based on CoT, tune that out. Commercials are not smart money. They are the hedge side of the trade, little more or less. They will willingly be wrong for long stretches as an asset rises until the their hedge books pay off at the negative turning point. But it’s the structure of the market. It’s not like some evil entities are waiting to take poor speculators’ money. Smart specs do just fine when they know to tune out the hype-driven bullish thrills that develop near turning points. I think this ‘smart money’ crap is made up by embittered gold bugs looking for excuses to feed their herds when the turns come.
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One day I may like silver again, hopefully that day is coming soon. Today, though, I will likely get stopped out. Not a bad thing, since I am limiting my losses, but it was a pretty dumb trade when looking at the overall trend which is still down. Looks like there was a tick down early this morning that hit 18.72. Wonder if that might be the end of this drop or just another teaser.
The only thing silver has going for it technically is clear long-term support. Sure, support can break down and the daily trends are clearly bad. A seasonal bottom positive CoT are what it has going for it. Problem being seasonal can vary and CoT is not a good timer. It’s a condition (currently positive).