Market Psych 101

After selling SLV, PALL, PPLT, SIL, GDX, BTG and bear fund TZA Yesterday and trimming a couple core gold stock positions the day before…

I was sad. These items had all performed well and some performed spectacularly. All that green in the portfolio day after angst ridden day was pleasurable. I was a genius, I tell you!

But the non-genius, non-greedy, cold hearted side of me took over and yanked that green stuff out of the portfolio, leaving poor genius me to wonder if I had sold too soon. Why, I could be even MORE of a genius! A real inflation trade/commodity guru hero! But instead, here I was the same old risk manager genius-wannabe.

Seriously, I had worked hard and charted and analyzed for subscribers the whole precious metals bounce and commodity rally to the best of my ability. What if the HUI 325 target and gold 2000+ pause point were wrong and I scared people out too soon? What if Palladium and Platinum go to the moon and I failed to ride a super cycle?

In this racket you’ve got to be a predator, not a genius; not a perma-anything. Now, with markets going to the plans we took pains to nimbly lay out a few weeks ago in NFTRH 694, I feel like the former and never want to think of myself as smart because the market is smarter. I just want to be a good interpreter with discipline.

Yesterday it was hard to have discipline when I wanted to hold my super green positions instead of raising cash. Today that psychology is flipped and I am going to think about the answers to ‘what?’, ‘when?’ and ‘at what levels?’ will the next big opportunity present in not only precious metals, but the whole shootin’ match. This market is so much more fun than that robo-trend from mid-2020 to Q4 2021.

Today could be a sharp, quick reaction and nothing more. It could also be part of the expected volatility with the goons ready to meet and render some pablum or other about what we already know, on March 16.

As posted yesterday:

From the weekend online edition of NFTRH, #696…

We reviewed the bullish objectives for gold, silver and the miners (HUI) in the second segment. The week closed with that status, but also with the same risks involved. Gold has taken the other side of the fear trade as the headline indexes drop (pending the labored bounce) and fear envelops the planet. Insofar as current TA and sentiment trends remain intact, we’re looking for gold to 2000+, silver to 30+/- and HUI to 325.

What’s more, I think there is a good chance that this is the start of the projected 2022 bull phase for gold and the miners. The first impulsive launch. However, when the acute phase of fear ends – and it will – the PMs will be quite vulnerable to correction, at least to test the parameters of the new bull phase. That could mean gold dropping back to [pullback targets omitted] the XXXX area (current: 1966), HUI to the XXX-XXX area (current: 304) and silver to the low-mid XX (current: a lagging 25.80) if they do indeed ding the upside targets, near-term. Let’s remember that the seasonal goes negative around the current time frame.

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