US stock market volume profiles are not impressive

As the stock market’s sentiment relief rally has labored on, volume has diverged It’s not usually a good sign when an index, ETF or individual equity rises on diminishing volume. That implies fading conviction among casino patrons. SPY sees diminishing volume. DIA sees diminishing volume. SMH sees diminishing volume. QQQ sees diminishing volume. IWM sees diminishing volume. Conclusion The US stock market has risen on … Continue reading US stock market volume profiles are not impressive

Updating the “last inflated man standing”

The Energy sector ETF (XLE) continues a would-be topping situation Why yes, I got clowned a little last week as I was compelled by my personal psych profile and risk management to take a much smaller profit on Energy short ERY than had I done it a day earlier when I made this post. But on Friday per the trade log… Well, I shorted the … Continue reading Updating the “last inflated man standing”

30 year treasury bond yield

Treasury yields still on plan

And the plan is for a bond yield pullback from hysterical highs With respect to the long end of the Treasury curve, both the 30yr (top) and 10yr Treasury bond yields are below their daily SMA 50. Since inflation and the yields that indicated it have been public enemies 1 and 2, a continued pullback is probably needed for the Q4-Q1 seasonal party to have … Continue reading Treasury yields still on plan

XLE, energy sector (oil and gas)

“Last inflated man standing” feels a bit of heat [w/ edit]

[edit] And so a perfectly good topping situation is wrecked. Or is it? Today’s chart would show the potential for a reverse Symmetrical Triangle topping/reversal pattern. But it would also show potential to ding a new high before topping. Regardless, my outstanding profit is now a minuscule one and I’ve taken it on half the position and probably will on the remainder. I generally don’t … Continue reading “Last inflated man standing” feels a bit of heat [w/ edit]

'real' 10 year Treasury yield

NFTRH 732 excerpt on Bonds & Gold

NFTRH 732 excerpt discusses bonds and bond market indicators with respect to the gold price US Bond Market For someone who uses the bond markets as important indicators to the macro analysis, I am the furthest thing from an astute bond trader and am certainly not a bond investor. This probably owes to the fact that my earliest (gold bug) training in the markets was … Continue reading NFTRH 732 excerpt on Bonds & Gold

NFTRH 732, out now

NFTRH 732 is uploaded to the archive for subscribers. It does not break much new ground but it does reinforce and add clarity to our ongoing, and thus far on track themes. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. … Continue reading NFTRH 732, out now

As inflation eases, the macro grinds in favor of the gold mining sector

The macro market and economic backdrop continues to pivot favorable for the gold mining sector The risk/reward for gold stocks has been very good after 2.5 years of correction that, contrary to what a majority of gold bugs think, was very valid amid the post-pandemic cycle of cyclical inflation. I won’t review the details about why here, as it is beyond the scope of this … Continue reading As inflation eases, the macro grinds in favor of the gold mining sector