Technical analysis is one tool, and I ain’t no trading jockey
As to that last point, I do have a small trading account that was gathering mothballs until I decided to buy puts on SLV the day before silver cashed. I’m like, hmmm, lemme think about this casino gambling thing. Since then I have sat as long as it takes to find new low risk/high profit opportunities. A couple more came my way in the ensuing months. I almost shorted CSCO last night pre-earnings after successfully shorting QCOM earlier the week. I held off and OMG, thank you. It was a reminder that my way of never feeling pressure to make a trade is a good one. Only relative no-brainers, baby.
Preamble aside…
So I do trade. I do enjoy it. I do talk about it on occasion.
But I have had an odd relationship with the In-Day Notes page (pw), which were added by subscriber request. This is where I casually discuss market thoughts, strategy and identify trades I am interested in or taking on.
It’s odd because I like to talk (just ask my wife) and write; I like to communicate. But I abhor people who put the word “trader” in front of their name and profess to tell others what to do simply because they read Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator * or have a version of Technical Analysis ** they think works for them.
I do not now, and never have told other people what to do. I work my ass off to dig up all the tools and indications subscribers will need to make sound decisions; THEIR decisions.
I got a little hacked off a couple weeks ago when a subscriber advised he’d be cancelling because I do not issue “buy”/”sell” calls and because I am too casual with the Notes page. As best I could interpret it, he’d want me to tell him what to do with regimented buy/sell calls. Nuh uh, sir. Not only would I be miserable (I abhor gambling and casino mentality based on nothing but charts and guessing), but it would suck time away from what is really important, which is…
Keeping NFTRH the best top-down macro service of its kind. Yup, I have that confidence.
Side note: after the critique and intention to cancel, he noted that a position I’d held in the portfolio and discussed often (Talon Metals) had more than paid for his subscription. So it can be sort of a Bizzaro World, this market newsletter thing. Can’t please 100% of the people 100% of the time, eh?
I am really enjoying the darn notes aspect of the service as it is and as it is developing. A formal detailed report is one thing. NFTRH+ updates covering details of a specific topic or opportunity are another. But in the notes I can just briefly let ‘er rip, tell what I’m thinking (and why I’m thinking it) in real time.
Yesterday we ID’d an opportunity in a pair of commodities trading at near-historically strong discount to NAV while also having constructive nominal charts. I note that kind of stuff. Could have made an NFTRH+ update about it. But sometimes I just want to slap the details in the Notes and get ‘er done. This morning, a trade I missed a couple weeks ago is noted as reengaged after it took off, post-earnings and bear-flagged back down to provide an opportunity.
Subscribers are free to ignore or look closer at anything noted. This stuff is fun for me, even if I get the occasional request to treat people more like robots or trading students, or whatever. I’ll filter that stuff and continue on, enjoying what I am doing with the knowledge that a majority like it as is.
* I read it and loved it. Don’t get me wrong.
** TA is an art. It is an art that can and should be adjustable to one’s particular style. This art can work well if used as one tool in the box. In my box, I use nominal TA as a disciplined way of respecting trends, support/resistance (and hence, tolerances), divergences, overbought/oversold and secondarily, bull/bear flags and other patterns. But on the latter, I strongly feel that one should filter any TA mentioning things like “complex Head & Shoulders”, which is a way of saying ‘I don’t know what the fuck this freak pattern is but I need to sound, err, technical.’ The most valuable TA I have is ratio TA, where the truth about market internal relationships cannot be argued.
For “best of breed” top-down macro analysis and market strategy covering Precious Metals, Commodities, Stocks and much more, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes a comprehensive weekly market report, detailed NFTRH+ updates and chart/trade setup ideas, and Daily Market Notes. Receive actionable (free) public content at NFTRH.com and subscribe to our free Substack.
