2 year Treasury bond yield

The most important chart in the world!

Just kidding. It’s a reference to some gold bug man staring at a gold chart… …many years ago, labeling it “the most important chart in the world”. Some things just stick with me. 2 year Treasury bond yield is important across the macro Yes, it is very important because it has been a primary guide for the Fed to get (tardy though they were) and … Continue reading The most important chart in the world!

NFTRH 739, out now

It’s back to a normal PDF format this week and NFTRH 739 digs into the particulars of the Q4-Q1 rally theme and also examines its leadership, including and especially the gold mining sector. It was helpful to me to get back into formal mode. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market … Continue reading NFTRH 739, out now

Cathie Wood and the ARKK ETF

The stock market; where unrealistic dreams go to die

Cathie Wood’s ARKK ETF unwinds its epic bubble The smartest woman in the room continues to spout deflationary slogans and buy her fallen angels (I just saw a blurb that she’s buying more Tesla; ref. its downside target per this December 22 post) with the idea that inflation has been bad for her overvalued growth stuff, which it has. But thus far the decline in … Continue reading The stock market; where unrealistic dreams go to die

qqq/spy ratio

QQQ/SPY Ratio; another long-term indicator trend in trouble

The ratio of big Tech (QQQ) to the broader market (SPY) is in danger of making a secular top The log scale monthly chart (displaying percentage changes) shows a channel breakdown of a leader that held sway since 2006 as big Tech (QQQ) vs. SPY drops from the channel to test lateral support. If that area breaks down it’s not going to be pretty in … Continue reading QQQ/SPY Ratio; another long-term indicator trend in trouble

nftrh plus

NFTRH+; about the Gold-TIP divergence

I know a lot of subscribers read Tom McClellan, an analyst/newsletter writer who looks for market clues in market correlations and relationships, much like your letter writer does. In his most recent emailed article he notes that the TIP (inflation protected Treasury bond) ETF is diverging gold in a negative way as it is declining while gold is rising. That is true. It is a … Continue reading NFTRH+; about the Gold-TIP divergence

“Gold stock charts – all negative”

Gold stock charts are all negative, says a writer at GoldSeek I am not seeking to be critical of another analyst (who I actually know nothing about), but instead want to critique the article based on its stated views, using only charts. I am a chart guy, after all, and so I take notice when analysts use nominal charts in a vacuum to form conclusions … Continue reading “Gold stock charts – all negative”

copper/gold ratio copper price vs. gold price

Copper/Gold ratio up big today!

The copper price is up big today vs. the gold price, but… …unfortunately for cyclical inflation bulls, it got croaked the last two days and broke down from an already longer-term bearish situation. Reference Copper/Gold ratio and the inflated macro. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates … Continue reading Copper/Gold ratio up big today!

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NFTRH+; HUI technical parameters

A little micromanagement of the gold stock sector since a) it’s the favored sector for 2023 and b) it has tentatively taken out important resistance that we’ve identified as a potential gateway to a big bull run (HUI target: 500 +/-). HUI daily is clear enough, as it took out the SMA 200 on Tuesday and rammed through resistance at 240 yesterday. Key support – … Continue reading NFTRH+; HUI technical parameters

December ISM manufacturing report

December ISM Manufacturing RoB continues to decelerate

The December ISM Manufacturing Survey is per our 2023 plans The December ISM report is bad, folks. And it’s on track to our favored view for this year as the cyclical inflation continues to fade and along with it, the stuff that the inflation initially boosted is fading too. Counter-cyclicality and maybe even post-bubble contraction, here we come. You can click the front page graphic … Continue reading December ISM Manufacturing RoB continues to decelerate