The S&P 500 (weekly, log scale) and a few of its risk indicators Progressing along and gaining a comfort level with this medium, here is the latest macro blurb to…
If SPY's daily chart has been rising in a bear flag after testing the key December low, then we'd have to think about calling an end to the Q4-Q1 rally,…
This is a Goldilocks rally, not an 'inflation trades' (or cyclical) rally Today is an 'FOMC comment-free' day for me, as there is nothing surprising or new going on there…
Here on Fed day I want to talk about things other than the Fed and its upcoming .25% rate hike. We have not reviewed sectors relative to the S&P 500…
Janet Yellen is sooth saying the markets about the bank sector meltdown going on. It is government, not the Fed that is applying the band aids, talking about bailouts and…
A deflationary yield curve steepener is hinted at but not yet activated How do we know that the recent spike is a would-be deflationary yield curve steepener? We know because…
Fear, greed and bias reinforcement sell. Reality, at any given time? Not so much. A look at stocks, commodities, inflation, gold and silver through a contrary lens. As I continue…
NFTRH 749 Gold Stocks Let's get right to the sector that is primary in our forward view of the macro change that is developing (as if on cue, I might…
The inflation trades are fading and gold is ascending to its rightful place in the disinflationary macro The favored NFTRH plan is working out well as we planned the Q4…
I have long waited for the Energy sector to crack ("last inflated man standing") and finally it has. However, the crack is within an intact uptrend, using XLE as the…
Arista Networks stock (ANET) is flying in blue sky It was an opportunity taken (by me, and any subscribers following the Trade Log who might have had interest) and opportunity…
Earlier we noted the yield curve spiking from deeply inverted to less inverted. That will be a big time negative signal if it continues and starts to steepen in earnest.…
The 10yr-2yr yield curve is spiking impulsively and unlike the steepener into 2021 it ain't inflationary. We know that because nominal Treasury yields are dropping, not rising. If this continues…
The Empire State Manufacturing survey is bad Here is the report (PDF) from the New York Fed. Let's just take a visual journey down the road to disinflation/deflation and economic…