TBT Goes ‘Complex’

Well, you can’t win ’em all. I am still holding TBT but I did not want to see the lower low that came about today. Yet I’ve drawn in some shaded areas that could be in symmetry with each other. Note the little shoulders (green) inside of each deeper shoulder (shaded).


But now the prospect opens up that my near-term interest rate view could be wrong and that is what I care about a lot more than one trade (other items are more than compensating). I care about it because plans will be set by the interest rate picture. Those plans are…

  1. Yields rise to the 30yr 3.3% and 10yr 2.9% monthly chart limiters along with many asset market sectors in a big swoosh of bullish – and inflationary – euphoria. This would feed directly into a climax some weeks or even months down the road. This is the preferred view.
  2. Yields fail here and either the market rotates into the Goldilocks trades or the market mania ends sooner, rather than later. This is the less favored view.

Whether or not I continue to hold TBT, the favored view could come to pass, even without the nice bottoming pattern in yields; but last I checked I am a chart guy, so I’ve got to respect what I see. I am also an open minded guy, so well… I am open to different outcomes and positioned accordingly. But first let’s see what the complex pattern does (ha ha ha, you caught me talking like a TA).

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