2 year treasury bond yield and 3 month T-bill yield

If you’re a nerd, you find this amazing

2 year Treasury bond yield continues to diverge T-bills Well, this nerd is amazed by it (and several other out of whack macro indicators), at least. The 3 month T-bill yield (close companion to the Fed Funds rate) continues to steam upward in a divergence to the 2 year Treasury bond yield. Or put another way, the 2 year Treasury yield is negatively diverging in … Continue reading If you’re a nerd, you find this amazing

“Yield Curve Control”?

“There is nothing wrong with your television set [market signaling]. Do not attempt to adjust the picture [ratios, indicators, free market inputs]. We are controlling transmission [of the signals you receive]. If we wish to make it louder [more bullish], we will bring up the volume [bond market manipulation]. If we wish to make it [the economy] softer, we will tune it to a whisper … Continue reading “Yield Curve Control”?

Look Who is Still Not Buying the Bond Bear

Why, it’s the Pigs. Despite all the interest rate hype the Banks, which should benefit from a breakout in long-term yields, are still bearish. In a now public update yesterday we looked at the reasons 30 year yields may not continue to rise, despite the opinion of chart jockeys far and wide (including me, as I see the pretty chart patterns on yields). NFTRH; A … Continue reading Look Who is Still Not Buying the Bond Bear

Pigs Diverging the 10yr Yield

As noted in this week’s NFTRH US & Global Market Internals segment, an important leader is failing to lead. That is all the more notable because said important leader is the Bank sector, which is normally well correlated to long-term interest rates. What is up with this disconnect? What is KBE/SPY telling us about the yield and/or the state of economic health if the yield … Continue reading Pigs Diverging the 10yr Yield

mainstream media

10yr Treasury Note Hilarity

So Heisenberg notes… Bad News For That Massive Treasury Short As Goldman Slashes Bond Yield Forecasts Last Friday, when the latest CFTC data hit, Jeff Gundlach was pretty adamant about the possibility that a short squeeze might be imminent. “Massive increase this week in short positions against 10 &30 yr UST mkts. Highest for both in history, by far”, Jeff tweeted, before warning that the lopsidedness … Continue reading 10yr Treasury Note Hilarity

3 Amigos of a Different Kind

With the big picture macro implications of this potential secular crossroads in yields… …it is probably important to keep an eye on companion indicators to long-term yields. Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for an in-depth weekly market report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas; or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. You can also keep up to date with plenty of … Continue reading 3 Amigos of a Different Kind

From Our Contrary Perch, an Update on Bonds

[edit] Today I took profit (principal & interest) on 7-10 year Treasury fund IEF in order to concentrate on the shorter end of the curve for ‘cash equivalent’ income. With all due respect to Bill, Ray and Paul the play has been for a contrary move in bonds with our 3 leading experts emblematic of the media’s habit of pointing the investing herds the wrong … Continue reading From Our Contrary Perch, an Update on Bonds

Operation Twist by Another Name and Method?

The TIP/IEF ‘inflation gauge’ is still motoring upward after breaking above the SMA 200. If this turns the 200 up along with the MA 50 it could indicate a mini hysteria about inflation. The problem lately has been that the longest duration bonds have been relatively strong, putting a cap on yields and inflationary signaling, if not indicating deflationary pressure. TIP/TLT has not nearly kept … Continue reading Operation Twist by Another Name and Method?