10yr Treasury Note Hilarity

So Heisenberg notes…

Bad News For That Massive Treasury Short As Goldman Slashes Bond Yield Forecasts

Last Friday, when the latest CFTC data hit, Jeff Gundlach was pretty adamant about the possibility that a short squeeze might be imminent.

“Massive increase this week in short positions against 10 &30 yr UST mkts. Highest for both in history, by far”, Jeff tweeted, before warning that the lopsidedness “could cause quite a squeeze.”

Err… yeah Jeff, and we here at NFTRH and nftrh.com were warning of same a half a year ago and even before when 3 Amigos (Gross, Dalio & Tudor Jones w/ a side of you) were being amplified in the media with “BOND BEAR!” headlines. Here’s just one of many screeds on the topic.

While our 3 Macro Amigos included one Amigo #2 (long-term bond yields), who got home (to our yield limiter) months ago. We had been targeting yields on the upside to their limits from which point they were projected to be halted (i.e. the Bond Bear hype would also be halted, at least temporarily) per this and many other ‘Amigos’ updates, both before yields reached target and after.

Here’s the big picture of the 30yr yield’s limiter. The 30yr is the more compelling view for illustrative purposes. I mean, TYX always was going to stop at the data point (the red dashed ‘limiter’ on our Continuum chart) that has contained it for decades. Right? Well, it’s been stopped for 7 months now! We began shining a light on the media’s hype well before the limiter was hit. That is called forward-looking analysis as opposed to stimulation of emotions and by extension, reactions.


Yesterday it just so happened that the 7-10yr Treasury Bond iShares furthered its break from the Inverted H&S neckline. Today we are treated to Goldman, Gunlach and a brand spanking new play for the media to one day amplify and screw everybody up with. Wash, rinse, repeat.


The pattern above and the Commercial Hedging/Public Opinion data (source: Sentimentrader) suggest that it is not too late to get off the Bond Bear crack inhaled from the media by the masses. Hedgers are massively long, on the other side of the trade all those wrong way Corrigans in the Spec community took at the behest of hype. The public, of course, is massively over bearish. Public opinion is never positioned correctly at turning points.

Okay, so you read nftrh.com. You therefore read an outpost that was giving the correct scoop in an important market (whether or not the bond continues bullish from here) while 98% of the financial media were instigating you with emotional eyeball harvesting headlines disguised as analysis. So why not sign up to the real thing (below or on the side bar) for the comprehensive view including US/Global stocks, commodities, precious metals, currencies and individual stock charts aplenty? Eh? Aren’t you tired of the cacophonous media clown show yet?

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium (monthly at USD $33.50 or a 14% discounted yearly at USD $345.00) for an in-depth weekly market report, interim market updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade setup ideas, all archived/posted at the site and delivered to your inbox.

You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at NFTRH.com by using the email form on the right sidebar and get even more by joining our free eLetter. Or follow via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits or RSS. Also check out the quality market writers at Biiwii.com.