Note: I have a challenging day today and will be away from the market for most of the rest of the day. An alternative way (to shorting the market or…
What a week; and I am not talking just about the markets! I spent all day on jury duty yesterday and by the time they finally unshackled me I saw just how volatile things had been. I also saw that my ‘bounce’ gains had evaporated into the close.
Short-term Treasuries would be the receptacles of a flight to 'quality', liquidity, risk 'OFF'. The longer-term bonds would be a more risky risk 'OFF' play, with more potential gain as…
<insert here> the usual wording about indicators being conditions or guides, not directors... I usually look at the CoT data for gold and silver, but once in a while going…
There is short-term and there is long-term. Short-term, an indicator of positive inflationary cyclicality looks set to bounce. Long-term, it is locked well below key resistance. Joining this long-term Gloomy…
It is too early to call it a confirmed breakout, but the Bank index has popped above cyclical bull market highs. Weekly MACD and RSI both look good. The monthly…
The world is getting hyped up about bond yields lately with bonds of all stripes declining, as if we are in the midst of a debt Armageddon (we are and…
The Yield Curve is rising today while nominal yields drop. This continues the gentle uptrend that these spreads have been in lately. Again we state that gently rising is one…
In the previous post we noted how the 10 year vs. 2 year spread closed yesterday (among other things). Today that spread is rising with all nominal yields rising as…
With all the hype and noise built in to daily and weekly market management, sometimes it is worthwhile to dial out, calm things down and touch base with markets on the big picture. Here are views on various markets (with limited commentary) by way of some NFTRH monthly charts.
Let’s start with currencies, since they are a reflection upon global policy making, which has been unprecedented in its direct market interference over the last few years.
Nominal Charts – Currency
We noted the hot air patch in the Canada dollar last year. I had thought CDW might stop and find support at 85, which is a measurement from the topping pattern; but so far, no dice.
Fellow commodity currency Aussie is at what should be a strong support zone.
[edit] evidently my uninformed use of stockcharts.com’s symbol for the Rupee is incorrect. I have had input that this chart is an inverted view of Rupee-USD. Looking into this.
Okay, everybody to the other side of the boat! Risk goes off today in the casino as all durations drop and the curve rises. Thank you Doctor Bernankestein for the…
The long bond fund TLT has looked just fine, as we had been noting in NFTRH ETF updates during its bowl-like pattern. It's now broken above it. Daily MACD and…
The following is one of a wide range of analytical topics covered in NFTRH 293’s 35 pages this week, much of which is straight ahead technical analysis. But the T Bond market is usually central to an overall macro view at any given time. This segment is not meant to provide actionable direction (other than perhaps to prepare for a potential rise in T bonds yields), it is meant to dig into the mechanics beneath the financial markets in an effort to have people consider that there is much more going on with markets than simple nominal TA or conventional fundamental analysis (PE ratios, growth metrics, reported economic data, etc.) can account for.
US Treasury Bonds
Yields on long-term Treasuries have continued to decline in line with our view that was contrary the ‘Great Rotation’ (out of bonds) hype. The [30-year] especially is now close to support and the next play seems like it could be rising yields and declining T bonds.
The 30-year ‘Continuum’ view above makes the simple case that players had to be put offside believing in the ‘Great Rotation’ at 4% yields. The nearly half-year decline since then has now satisfied the chart as yields have come to our 3.1% to 3.2% target range, where there is support.
A good article (thanks Tom) about a good man trying to get out ahead of a rising interest rate world; India’s head of the RBI, who is raising interest rates while the US Fed keeps things stable for the rest of the world to start deleveraging. Is this really what is in play, a world setting up to clean up its debts and inflationary excesses?