NFTRH+; TLT Setup (now public)

Note:  I have a challenging day today and will be away from the market for most of the rest of the day.

An alternative way (to shorting the market or sitting in cash) to play a risk ‘off’ view is through Treasury bonds; specifically long-term Treasury bonds.  The 20+ year iShares fund TLT is in a Symmetrical Triangle with a breakout, either up or down, coming soon.  I find it interesting that it is positive today even as stocks attempt to take the expected bounce.

tlt daily chart

Weekly TLT is in a sneakily bullish looking pattern and is MACD/RSI positive (as is the daily above).  A break above the Triangle line should send TLT significantly higher.  A break down, the opposite.

tlt weekly chart

But if one assumes (as I do) the odds favor a resumed bear phase once a bounce completes, then the odds are TLT would break upward.  What would make sense is for TLT to drop to the lower Triangle line while the stock market continues to bounce.  So far that is not happening.  But it’s early and the stock market has not really bounced much, it is just posturing to do so.  In the event it is not ready to bounce, TLT could be an indicator (as well as a trade) in breaking the top Triangle line.

Buy Target:  A breakout above 124 or a drop to the lower Triangle line at 120.

Sell Target:  Undetermined, this is a risk ‘off’ vehicle that pays a dividend.

Stop Loss:  Below 117.50 or as suits individual risk tolerance and/or reason for holding the risk ‘off’ TLT (there are several scenarios, from a trade to a hedge to an income generator amid market turmoil)

A reminder that chart based NFTRH+ updates are technical trade setup ideas, which may not be revisited as the buy, sell, stop parameters are already noted. They are meant as a starting point for further research if interested. I will not personally buy every item highlighted and will sometimes sell – without prior notice (because this takes time and resource away from NFTRH’s main functions) – any item that I do buy, below target, which is something I often do as a trader. Also please be aware that I am not a fundamental stock analyst. Due diligence is your responsibility.