alice in wonderland

NFTRH 380 Out Now

We have been on the bounce scenario and speaking as a bear on the intermediate trend, I say thank you Mr. Kuroda.  Everything, including clear as day analysis on the precious metals sector, is brought up to date in 34 highly graphical pages; and I feel that I, as a puny little market participant, am as well prepared as possible after once again doing the … Continue reading NFTRH 380 Out Now

macrocosm, nftrh 363

US Stock Market & the Gold Sector

To review our stance, which is years along now, the gold sector is not going anywhere until it becomes widely accepted that developed stock markets, including and especially those in the US, are in bear cycles.  We have also drawn analogies to the Q4 2008 event that took place in what felt like a nanosecond compared to today’s long, drawn out process.  For this reason, … Continue reading US Stock Market & the Gold Sector


A Prime Machine Tool Builder w/ a Hyped Twist falls flat in Q4

I used to get freely distributed emails (i.e. non-premium) from a well regarded service based in the UK.  They struck me as very smart and very buttoned down.  What they didn’t strike me as was guys who have worked on a manufacturing floor.  When I saw their narrative remaining bullish the likes of Fanuc due to its Robotics component (in the face of what I … Continue reading A Prime Machine Tool Builder w/ a Hyped Twist falls flat in Q4

nftrh plus

NFTRH+; TLT Revisited, TIP Reviewed

With reference to Michael Ashton’s post at Biiwii… No Strategic Reason to Own Nominal Bonds Now Mike Ashton is also known as the “inflation guy” and for good reason, his knowledge of the CPI, inflation indexing and hedging is second to none in my opinion. That said, the NFTRH+ trade on TLT (a play on deflation, among other things), as with all NFTRH+ ideas, is … Continue reading NFTRH+; TLT Revisited, TIP Reviewed


December SEMI Book-2-Bill Ticks Up, Machine Tools as Well… as Expected

We had been reserving the SEMI data for private posts when we were scouting for changes to the previous trend, but since we noted the trend change in real time and are into a new one we’ll simply update each month in public posts. The SEMI book-to-bill took a bounce in December as I suspected it might for reasons similar to what happens like clockwork … Continue reading December SEMI Book-2-Bill Ticks Up, Machine Tools as Well… as Expected

alice, nftrh

NFTRH Update; S&P 500 Status, Gold, Silver & HUI

S&P 500 If today follows through with more downside, the bounce scenario would be in trouble.  [Note: When I began the update, futures were down handily, and at its completion, they are up handily.  The update is as it was, when the futures were negative].  Using SPX as the example, consider 1867 as the key ‘do or die’ level on a daily close.  As it … Continue reading NFTRH Update; S&P 500 Status, Gold, Silver & HUI

alice in wonderland

NFTRH 379 Out Now

From 2012 to 2014 we had robo-market, grinding upward as hedge funds, diversified asset allocaters, stock pickers and yours truly under performed a simple ‘set it and forget it’ (by buying the S&P 500) mindset.  Then came last year’s trendless topping situation when the majority of stocks declined but the S&P 500 hung around, keeping passive SPY holders still relatively comfy in their resolve. Now … Continue reading NFTRH 379 Out Now


Swing Baby, Swing!

This article assumes one is trading the up and down swings in the stock market.  Swing traders are just one segment of a market population that includes those sitting in cash (and/or risk ‘off’ vehicles like Treasury Bonds), maintaining longer-term short positions, our always bullish friends, the “stocks for the long-term” contingent and of course, the indomitable Gold Bug “community”, focusing as ever on one … Continue reading Swing Baby, Swing!

alice, nftrh

NFTRH; Some US Market Leaders Diverging

As we have reviewed by various charts, several indexes are broken.  But the Internets, which we had noted could be a buy at 280 in a market bounce scenario, are not yet broken.  For reference, see NFTRH 378 and a post at Biiwii from this morning’s pre-market.  Here is the DJINET by daily chart.  This leading index is right at the would-be ‘bounce’ buy target.  … Continue reading NFTRH; Some US Market Leaders Diverging

nftrh plus

NFTRH+; TLT Daily & Weekly (public post)

A week ago, in anticipation of the risk ‘off’ impulse in the markets, we NFTRH+’d long-term Treasury bond fund TLT.  Here’s the original post, unlocked.  We set parameters for buying and for a ‘stop loss’, but not for selling because this vehicle can be used for several different reasons, including price appreciation, but also for risk ‘off’ diversification and income generation.  Anyway, here are the … Continue reading NFTRH+; TLT Daily & Weekly (public post)