We had been reserving the SEMI data for private posts when we were scouting for changes to the previous trend, but since we noted the trend change in real time and are into a new one we’ll simply update each month in public posts.
The SEMI book-to-bill took a bounce in December as I suspected it might for reasons similar to what happens like clockwork with Machine Tools every December (for tax management reasons). Again, it’s not so much the b2b but bookings that are important.
“Both semiconductor equipment bookings and billings improved in December,” said Denny McGuirk, president and CEO of SEMI. “Despite softness in the equipment market in the fourth quarter, both annual bookings and billings in 2015 of North American equipment suppliers remained above 2014 levels.”
We have also been following Machine Tool sales every month and predictably, here’s the December bounce. Units sold (at cut rate prices, I’ll bet) took the bounce, but what a feeble bounce it was. You can safely ignore the used equipment data as this stuff is out there, sometimes almost given away. It is new Machine Tools that matter for our purposes. Also, a reminder that these are unit sales, not revenues, so the situation is probably worse from a financial perspective. From EDA…
Economics, as with the stock market, is all about trends. We began noting a trend change in Semi Equipment in October and in Machine Tool sales long before that. December saw a bounce, as expected. Trends remain negative.
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