April ISM and the forward economic view

ISM hints at forward deceleration Uncle Buck As a former manufacturing guy I am well aware of how monetary policy and the state of the US dollar affects US manufacturers. But I have not been that guy for so long now that I tend not to look at it as closely anymore. But the current time seems appropriate for a review of the manufacturing sector. … Continue reading April ISM and the forward economic view

A Decidedly Different Look at the ISM Report on Business

ISM’s Report on Business (RoB) blisters upward, but… My former residence within the real economy was right here, in the manufacturing base. I don’t miss it even one little bit, but were I still involved we’d be booming and bitching. Business would be very good and prices and supply constraints very aggravating. The way things went in my segment – Medical Equipment, often pressured by … Continue reading A Decidedly Different Look at the ISM Report on Business

ISM Continues to Fade

Here is the full ISM Report on Business if you’d like to check it out. Here are the concerning items I’ve marked up… Here are what some respondents have to say for November’s situation… Subscribe to NFTRH Premium (monthly at USD $35.00 or a discounted yearly at USD $365.00) for an in-depth weekly market report, interim market updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade setup ideas. … Continue reading ISM Continues to Fade

Philly Fed Bumps Up, With a Cost-Push Inflation Hint

It’s just one region, but the Philly Fed’s Manufacturing survey bumped up in its most recent reading. The thing I find most interesting is the expectation that manufacturers will be able to out pace inflation with their pricing. If they are right, the highly technical term for that is an inflation-fueled economy flying up its own ass. If manufacturers start to feel as though they … Continue reading Philly Fed Bumps Up, With a Cost-Push Inflation Hint

Strong Manufacturing & Strong Employment = ?

Strong economy! Okay, now that we have that out of the way the futures reversed this morning on the jobs report that should have been no surprise to anyone. It’s as good as it gets out there. Just look at some of the data from Tuesday’s ISM report (PMI 61.3%). As a side note see Charlie Bilello’s Do Stocks Perform Better When Manufacturing is Booming? … Continue reading Strong Manufacturing & Strong Employment = ?

A Routine Look at the Empire Survey Morphs Into a Mini Screed

Full report here From NY Fed: Business activity grew at a solid clip in New York State, according to firms responding to the April 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index, at 15.8, remained firmly in positive territory, although its seven-point decline from its March level pointed to a somewhat slower pace of growth. Similarly, the new orders index and the … Continue reading A Routine Look at the Empire Survey Morphs Into a Mini Screed


As Good as it Gets; Like 2000 With a Twist

With the Semiconductor sector below but hailing its all-time highs, a lot of images come to mind; chief among them the 1999-2000 stock market bubble… In early 2013 we noted a progression that would go on to birth the current economic expansion and stock market boom (of course, I didn’t come close to envisioning the extent of the boom that followed). I’ve belabored it often … Continue reading As Good as it Gets; Like 2000 With a Twist


Deflation: A Manufacturer’s View (2004)

I am posting this article written pre-NFTRH, in 2004 (but since destroyed on the server when I accidentally blew up‘s database last year).* This is the version from my local hard drive, presented as a reference point to NFTRH 431’s opening segment rebutting one part of Donald Trump’s inauguration speech, which I plan to release as a public article.  With reference to the “Jungian … Continue reading Deflation: A Manufacturer’s View (2004)

economic data

October ISM: PMI Steady at 51.9%

ISM is not going to move many needles one way or the other with this report.  I’ve highlighted the important items.  New orders eased but are still in growth mode and interestingly (to our inflation view), employment and prices kicked up.  On the downside, already light backlogs dropped again.  That is not a good forward-looker for manufacturers.  From ISM… Still, our plucky respondents are mostly … Continue reading October ISM: PMI Steady at 51.9%

ism new orders

ISM Manufacturing is Wobbling @ PMI 49.4%; Early Economic Alert?

The weak ISM headline number (PMI) was an excuse for bonds and precious metals to bounce and the US dollar to drop today.  It evidently inspired wild eyed casino patrons to unwind recent positions (short gold, long USD for instance) as the great and powerful Fed now has reason to stand down in September.  Such is life in the casino; always a story, always a … Continue reading ISM Manufacturing is Wobbling @ PMI 49.4%; Early Economic Alert?

Meanwhile, ‘Push’ Inflation Brews in US?

The ISM RoB continues on our theme of inflationary growth, as first indicated in the Semiconductor Equipment sector while everyone was freaking out about the backward looking employment situation.  Full ISM report here. The notables are highlighted.  Costs eased?  They are still elevated and no threat to our thesis. The caveat?  Even though business activity is brisk manufacturers were still not buying big ticket items … Continue reading Meanwhile, ‘Push’ Inflation Brews in US?

Empire: Manufacturing Bounce

[edit] Yikes…  a blogger’s worst nightmare.  I had ‘Dallas Fed’ on the brain due to publishing a post by former Dallas Fed associate Danielle DiMartino Booth at Biiwii and mistakenly noted this as being from the Dallas, instead of New York Fed.  Oh well, we move on. In line with the most recent ISM (May), the  New York Fed reports improved manufacturing activity. Here are … Continue reading Empire: Manufacturing Bounce

ISM Manufacturing RoB @ 51.3%

A fairly level ISM RoB for May.  I’ve highlighted a couple notables.  New orders are healthy and price creep is in effect, which would dovetail with our would-be Semiconductor related inflationary theme, perhaps down the road a piece. ISM now provides a handy RoB historical.  Can you spot a trend?  Look, I am as negative as the next guy about the fundamentals beneath the economy … Continue reading ISM Manufacturing RoB @ 51.3%