alice

A Prime Machine Tool Builder w/ a Hyped Twist falls flat in Q4

I used to get freely distributed emails (i.e. non-premium) from a well regarded service based in the UK.  They struck me as very smart and very buttoned down.  What they didn’t strike me as was guys who have worked on a manufacturing floor.  When I saw their narrative remaining bullish the likes of Fanuc due to its Robotics component (in the face of what I … Continue reading A Prime Machine Tool Builder w/ a Hyped Twist falls flat in Q4

alice

December SEMI Book-2-Bill Ticks Up, Machine Tools as Well… as Expected

We had been reserving the SEMI data for private posts when we were scouting for changes to the previous trend, but since we noted the trend change in real time and are into a new one we’ll simply update each month in public posts. The SEMI book-to-bill took a bounce in December as I suspected it might for reasons similar to what happens like clockwork … Continue reading December SEMI Book-2-Bill Ticks Up, Machine Tools as Well… as Expected

alice

Machine Tool Sales Unsurprisingly Decline Again in October

Here is the latest ‘units sold’ data for the Machine Tool industry.  New equipment sales continue to decline and used equipment kicked up a bit. We are once again at the year-end, which is a season that Machine Tool sales traditionally bounce, on tax related buying.  So let’s not be surprised if November and/or December shows a ramp up.  It would likely come at reduced … Continue reading Machine Tool Sales Unsurprisingly Decline Again in October

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NFTRH+ Trade Setup; Fanuc

Well, here is Mr. Inverted H&S showing up again.  We had something similar in BEN last week, something similar potentially on RUT/IWM… indexes, stocks, US, global… these bounce patterns seem to be popping up everywhere. A little history for those who do not know.  First of all, I am a former manufacturing guy and I have a long history with this quality machine tool company.  … Continue reading NFTRH+ Trade Setup; Fanuc

alice

Japan: No Need to Add Stimulus, Machinery Declines Again

What do you know?  The BoJ is holding firm this time (unlike Q4 last year when they blew up the Yen and were part of what seemed a coordinated effort (along with China Central Planners’ easing and Fed Hawk-in-Drag Bullard’s ‘QE 4’ bull horn) to keep deflation at bay and asset markets afloat. This time Mr. Kuroda notes that prices are not declining as they … Continue reading Japan: No Need to Add Stimulus, Machinery Declines Again

July Machine Tool Sales: Show Me Uptrend!

Right in line with the information I got from a former industry colleague back in July, Machine Tool sales data have continued to degrade.  Click for a larger view of the graph.  From EDA (mark ups mine)… The key ‘New Equipment’ sales (blue) are most important and these sales are at lows not seen since 2011.  A couple key points… This graph shows units sold, … Continue reading July Machine Tool Sales: Show Me Uptrend!

June Machine Tool Sales

Sales of new Machine Tools (blue line) bumped up in June. Apparently they adjust this data but don’t make mention of revisions.  The graphical representation through May, while still weak, is different from the last release per this post. Again, my contact’s input… “Just an update for you, some disturbing news has leaked out this week.  Machine tool builders have put out blow out list … Continue reading June Machine Tool Sales

On Japan, Robotics, Machine Tools & Manufacturing

A while back we noted that machine tool sales were continuing to fade and that there was alarming news from my boots on the ground source in the industry centered on Japanese builder Mori Seiki. Machine Tools Fading In NFTRH we had been following Machine Tool and Robotics builder Fanuc since Q4 of last year, with the idea being that Japanese exporters could get a … Continue reading On Japan, Robotics, Machine Tools & Manufacturing

Small Bounce in Orders

Courtesy of EDA, here is the data graphic showing a small bounce in Machine Tool sales in March… As well as in equipment for multiple industries… It’s not a big deal yet, but we are now on a theme that could include another economic pop as USD continues to correct, after near perfectly working the theme that called for economic weakness in the face of … Continue reading Small Bounce in Orders

Machine Tool Sales Data Continue to Degrade

EDA has compiled US Machine Tool sales data for January and it was not good at all.  This is the leading edge of manufacturing and it is trending lower. ‘But it declines every January after the near-automatic December sales spike’ one might implore.  To which I’d answer yes that is true, but December’s sales of new equipment was nearly 600 units off from 2013. ‘But … Continue reading Machine Tool Sales Data Continue to Degrade

December Machine Tool Data, Not Good

I have been awaiting the December Machine Tool sales data from EDA, assuming we’d get another year-end ramp up (especially with IMTS this past September), like clockwork.  Well, the clock broke. This is very relevant economic material and we’ll of course discuss it and other economic forward lookers in NFTRH 329. Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates (including Key … Continue reading December Machine Tool Data, Not Good

Canary’s Alive & Well

Excerpted from this week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH 327), a 35 page report covering economic data and indicators, US and global stock markets, commodities and clear technical and macro fundamental parameters on gold, silver and the miners… Canary’s Alive & Well This week we will cover the ECB QE action, Euro, USD and their implications for global trade.  We’ll also update a still-intact … Continue reading Canary’s Alive & Well