alice, nftrh

NFTRH; Semi Equip. Bear Flags

The market bounce (whether very mini to SPX 1915 or maxi to 2000) is in progress (see public post from this morning for more on this).  Within this we need to remember that the trend is bearish.  In this regard, I took a look at some of my former Semi Equipment short positions (LRCX, AMAT & MKSI) and found some less than bullish looking things.

MKSI is bear flagging below the 50 and 200 day moving averages.  Also, its weekly chart (not shown) sports what looks like a topping structure with a neckline at 31-32.

mksi daily chart

LRCX is trying to bounce, but our long-term NFTRH+ target was in the 50’s.

lrcx daily chart

AMAT is not so much in a bear flag as bouncing to resistance at the 50 and 200 day moving averages.

amat daily chart

Just a short perspective’ post on a sector we have noted to be in a fundamentally vulnerable position.  With earnings season upon us, that could start coming out in the wash (Q4 earnings releases and forward projections).  If that happens, then the Wall Street analysts that have been falling all over themselves recommending these things could start knee jerking the other way, with downgrades.

At least that’s the theory.  The technicals are that these are bearish unless the flags get above the moving averages and business results somehow go contrary to expectation.  I added MKSI short today to go along with still-held shorts on GS and KBE.  This is against longs SPY, AMZN, PLUS and now BBRY and BSX.

Nothing I own (or short) in this market is considered long-term.  The default position remains ‘cash’.