The Semiconductor Equipment sector is part of the solution to the Semiconductor supply shortage problem Per NFTRH 656 and several editions previous to it, we have been viewing the Semi Equipment stocks in a fundamentally positive light, regardless of the technicals. Today, the technicals are starting to prove out as well. From #656, including the ‘leadership’ chart below. “Staying with a weekly market view let’s … Continue reading On Semiconductor Fab Equipment
What got me checking into the SEMI data is a goofy MarketWatch article featuring a fund manager who owns the FAANG type stocks at 30 multiples, but has found relative value in AMAT and LRCX, the two Semiconductor Equipment stocks that I was bullish on 1.5 years ago. I know, I know… I sold too soon and that is my issue and I have to … Continue reading Semi Equipment Spending Record, 2018 Growth, But…
SEMI snuck its August Equipment book-to-bill report by me, releasing it earlier than usual on the 15th. No matter, we got bullish months ago (despite some expert bearish views I was notified about at the time) and while stock prices have ramped up significantly (as the herd caught on), the sector remains strong, business-wise. The green box represents a trend and if the data were … Continue reading Semi Equipment Still Robust, Book-to-Bill Trend Intact and Thoughts on the Market
We have been using the Semis as a one of several economic signposts, and as an investment/trading destination since the Semi Equipment ‘bookings’ category in the Book-to-Bill ratio began to ramp up several months ago. But those who say that Semiconductors are subject to pricing pressures are correct. It is a segment in which people need to be discrete with their investments. NFTRH 410 updated … Continue reading Semiconductor Sector, Updated
Following is the opening segment from the May 29 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 397: If we are going to highlight improving fundamentals, which we did as gold out performed commodities and stock markets, then we also have to highlight and respect eroding fundamentals; no ifs, ands or buts. The plain and simple fact is that the Semiconductor Equipment sector is firming, … Continue reading AMAT Chirps, b2b Ramps, Yellen Hawks and Gold’s Fundamentals Erode
Billings were down significantly and that matters not a whit. Bookings jumped and so did the ratio, which of this occasion is indicative of a good report. From SEMI’s mouthpiece: “Order activity remains steady and is on par with both the previous quarter and one year ago,” said Denny McGuirk, president and CEO of SEMI. “3D NAND and advanced logic are the key drivers for … Continue reading SEMI Equipment Book-to-Bill Improves
The Semi equipment book-to-bill ratio jumped all the way to 1.08! Can you believe that? Well unfortunately, what matters is nominal bookings and billings. Bookings eased a bit from December’s bump up and billings dropped harder. In other words, the b2b was driven by Thing 1 dropping less than Thing 2. So it is not at all positive, but could have been worse had bookings … Continue reading Semi b2b Jumps to 1.08, and it’s Deceiving
The market bounce (whether very mini to SPX 1915 or maxi to 2000) is in progress (see public post from this morning for more on this). Within this we need to remember that the trend is bearish. In this regard, I took a look at some of my former Semi Equipment short positions (LRCX, AMAT & MKSI) and found some less than bullish looking things. … Continue reading NFTRH; Semi Equip. Bear Flags
NFTRH+ short idea LRCX (chart below is from the original update) tested my patience royally. As it whipsawed above and below 80 I held it short (and also shorted its Semi Equipment fellows AMAT and MKSI) simply because my fundamental views have done a 180 from what they were in early 2013. I’ll not belabor the reasons as they are already posted, repeatedly. Suffice it … Continue reading Semis Bearish, as Projected; NFTRH+ Short LRCX Finally Cracks
I see analysis out there discussing the Semiconductor sector as a whole as being under valued relative to other stock market sectors. This seems to be based on the fact that the SOX chart has not made nearly the catch up move that for example, the NDX has in its post 2000 recovery. While charts can provide many helpful views to probabilities, they cannot get … Continue reading SEMI Book-to-Bill Ratio Decelerates as Expected, Semis Not Under Valued
In an NFTRH update we reviewed the newly negative Semiconductor Equipment sector book-to-bill data. After seeing that I checked with a former associate of mine to see what is happening with the ‘boots on the ground’. His manufacturing business is not exclusively Semi-related, but it is a heavy component. For our purposes, it is the Semi commentary that is important… “All is as well as … Continue reading NFTRH+; an NFTRH Update and a Short Trade Setup Against a Major Semi Equipment Co.
This was not unexpected, per the SEMI spokesman’s previous release in September. The ratio bumped up a teeny, but bookings declined, and bookings are the important one. Here is the entire report. “Both bookings and billings trended slightly lower in the September three-month average compared to August,” said Denny McGuirk, president and CEO of SEMI. “While year-to-date billings through the first three quarters are above … Continue reading Semiconductor Equipment Book-to-Bill Out; Bookings and Billings Ease
Semi.org’s latest book-to-bill (b2b) data is out, for August. The all-important ‘Bookings’ data hit a 6 month high (in its 3 mo. average) and if memory serves, this is higher than several readings from before the March cutoff below. So too did Billings and the Ratio. Still, SEMI has these mitigating words… “Given the trends through the year so far, the book-to-bill ratio stayed above … Continue reading Semiconductor Book-to-Bill Triple Play; Bookings, Billings & Ratio Rise in August
The Semiconductor Equipment book-to-bill data are out and while June eased a bit it did nothing to cause any disturbance to Q2’s numbers. This means that through the April-June quarter the reported data of the 3 month averages remained strong. Bookings have however gone on a slight declining trend over the last 3 reports.