Speed readers to your marks…

Because here’s the anticlimactic event (that’s an assumption because this is written prior to the FOMC release) you’ve been waiting for… September 21, 2022 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply … Continue reading Speed readers to your marks…

Interesting Gold/Commodity correlations to yields

Copper/Gold and Oil/Gold correlated with the 10yr yield From yardeni.com, a visual representation of one implication of the Copper/Gold ratio, which I often make a big deal about. If the Copper/Gold ratio has broken down for real (I believe it has) then yields are going to reverse, along with the inflation trades. That’s a theme I’ve had going for about a year now, but this … Continue reading Interesting Gold/Commodity correlations to yields

T-minus 1 day, 4 hours and 42 minutes…

Eggheads assemble, as FOMC meets Ooh, can’t you just cut the tension with a knife? FOMC is going to hike the funds rate by at least .75% tomorrow and according to 18% of CME Fed Funds traders, potentially a full percentage point. The Fed is taking its commands (not direction, not suggestion, not indication, not even demands, but commands) from the bond market seriously. The … Continue reading T-minus 1 day, 4 hours and 42 minutes…

US Treasury bonds are worse than Junk

Junk bond ETF outperforms both Treasury and ‘investment grade’ (IG) bonds As would be expected, nominal junk (HYG) is pretty bearish along with the rest of cyclical/risk ‘on’ markets. It’s in a 2022 daily chart downtrend. With the tiring inflation story still eating away at Treasury bonds, it’s logical I suppose that Junk is strong in relation to T bonds. But what of Junk vs. … Continue reading US Treasury bonds are worse than Junk

NFTRH 723, out now

Back to regular PDF format this week. NFTRH 723, out now. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. Subscribe by Credit Card or PayPal using a link on the right sidebar (if using a mobile device you may need … Continue reading NFTRH 723, out now

The purple pill

“You take the blue pill… the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill… you stay in Wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes.”  -Morpheus A ‘blended’ orientation to markets and life… I took a red pill, dropped into a rabbit hole and entered Wonderland in 2003 and lived … Continue reading The purple pill

Gold bugs, be not saddened

What is happening to gold lately and today is heartening It’s been my favored scenario for becoming a gold stock bull. It goes like this… Inflation touts go over the top, include gold bug inflationists touting silver, copper, hogs, oil… gold! The Fed is not listening to anyone humping deflation. It is listening to the bond market and dead set on destruction… Inflationists are being … Continue reading Gold bugs, be not saddened

Media sporting Wood again (about deflation)

Say, did you know that Cathie Wood favors deflation? Why yes ladies and gentlemen, foremost overvalued story stock picker Cathie Wood thinks deflation is coming. That is quite contrarian alright and something I favor for 2023. Problem being, she was also calling deflation and declining oil a year ago as well, with oil at $80/bbl. It then went to $130 before dropping to today’s $88. … Continue reading Media sporting Wood again (about deflation)

Gold, Silver & Copper CoT data improve from already constructive to bullish alignments

In an ‘all one market’ signal, gold, silver and copper are contrary constructive, bullish and bullish respectively by sentiment/positioning in the Commitments of Traders Gold improved this week from an already okay alignment as large Specs sold and shorted, Commercials covered shorts and bought and little guys net shorted. Not bad. From CFTC… Silver was already very bullish by the contrary CoT view and now … Continue reading Gold, Silver & Copper CoT data improve from already constructive to bullish alignments

Stock market… on cue!

NFTRH 721 took technical readings of the US stock market, describing the major trends but also a short-term battle for SPX between the daily SMA 50 (resistance) and lateral short-term support. Today SPX is taking out the SMA 50 to the upside after holding support. Parameters, baby. We also added this view on the prospects for a sentiment bounce as well as a logical end … Continue reading Stock market… on cue!

The “best of times” for gold (and the miners that leverage it)

The best of times to come for gold (and gold miner) investors, if you’ve survived the worst of them Let’s let Charles Dickens teach us a few things about not only gold investing, but investing in general: “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times… “ It is now the best of times if you’re a gold bull who has somehow … Continue reading The “best of times” for gold (and the miners that leverage it)

Gold in various currencies

Gold as measured in major currencies (and a digital speculation) It’s not a major consideration of mine as far as precious metals indicators go. I think it is an overrated indicator from the past. But here is the state of gold vs. the debt-supported, intrinsically valueless paper/digital (funny) munny (daily charts) issued by governments and for comic effect, the new speculative crypto whiz kid. These … Continue reading Gold in various currencies

Commodity tracker dunks below the SMA 200

Commodities are starting to crack Disclaimer: commodities are notorious for rotation, as if the hedgies, quants and black boxes are playing Whack-a-Mole, roving the landscape rotating to the next play before they leave it high and dry. But here is the CRB tracker DBC doing something pretty notable, don’t you think? Even as DBC has out-performed the broad SPX since July (lower panel) its nominal … Continue reading Commodity tracker dunks below the SMA 200