And the plan is for a bond yield pullback from hysterical highs With respect to the long end of the Treasury curve, both the 30yr (top) and 10yr Treasury bond yields are below their daily SMA 50. Since inflation and the yields that indicated it have been public enemies 1 and 2, a continued pullback is probably needed for the Q4-Q1 seasonal party to have … Continue reading Treasury yields still on plan
When gold could rise during inflation You know, I rag on inflationist gold bugs a lot. And it’s with good reason. They are usually wrong. It’s not as simple as “inflation is going to eat away at your purchasing power, buy gold!” It’s when inflation is starting to eat you up and is no longer viewed as ‘good’, the way it was on balance coming … Continue reading Gold and inflation
One indicator of the inflation trades may be starting to fail With the understanding that inflation expectations continue to be in post-FOMC recovery mode and that there are few danger signs (yet) for the markets gauging by junk bonds and associated speculation, long-term Treasury yields are still taking a hit as the post-FOMC ‘buy the (taper) news in Treasury bonds’ play continues, resulting in a … Continue reading Continuum to continue? What about the inflation trades?
The yield curve and the nominal 10yr yield are at a critical macro juncture The chart attempts to tell you what I think without me interfering, right up until August, 2021. As for the current grey boxes highlighted for the yield curve and the nominal yield, I’ll tell you what I think. I think that another inflationary steepener has tried to get going (as evidenced … Continue reading Yield curve and 10yr Treasury yield: Our story since August 2019…
Our 30 year Treasury yield ‘Continuum’ chart indicates that deflation is the dominant trend, but… Steve Saville has written a post that got me thinking about carts and horses and more precisely, which comes before which. Is the inflationary horse pulling the deflationary cart up hill or is the deflationary cart leading the horse to drink from the shrinking liquidity pool periodically? See The Crisis-Monetisation … Continue reading The Inflation/Deflation debate wears on…
Yesterday we noted 3 sectors very interested in and benefiting from the cyclicality of rising long-term Treasury yields for a day at least. But what if the move is real, or as real as the Continuum’s limiter will allow it to be? What if the 30yr yield is headed for 2.6% or so? Well, below is a disgusting picture of the USA’s long, degrading journey … Continue reading Who’s Interested in Rising Long-term Treasury Yields?
Daily Silver/Gold ratio (SGR) is now losing the baby bear flag. Cue the Seinfeld ‘bad chicken’ episode… “that’s not gonna be good for anyone”. Okay, well it’s a shtick I like to use. It could be revised to ‘that’s not gonna be good for many if the inflationary paradigm of the last 20 years is still in force’. Although we are now in the 3rd … Continue reading Silver/Gold Ratio as a map to the end of the world?
30 year Treasury yield (daily chart) is making a new low. 30 year Treasury yield (monthly chart) is way out of the Fed’s implied comfort zone. Subscribe to NFTRH Premium (monthly at USD $35.00 or a discounted yearly at USD $365.00) for an in-depth weekly market report, interim market updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade setup ideas. You can also keep up to date with … Continue reading Jerome? Hello? Bond Market Calling…
 The degree to which gold has been bent out of shape by the drone strike and subsequent war drums informs Thing 2. But every day further from the event smooths the macro out back toward its regular signals I think. Plucky gold is still floating around up there after ticking the new high, but if it starts to lose cabin pressure that could put … Continue reading What Thing Does Not Look Like the Other Things?
While saving the Silver/Gold ratio charts of the previous post into a chart list called Key Macro Indicators, I saw this old chart sitting there and thought it a good time to dust it off and post it. These are all items that should be positively correlated to an inflation trade, if applicable. As you can see there is no sign of a positive trend … Continue reading 3 Amigos of Inflation
Take a look at the yield on the long bond. Take a listen to all those formerly loud Treasury BOND BEARS!!! Now all you hear are crickets. So are we now risk ‘off’ enough for the yield to make a low? Has the whole cacophonous mess been shut up? Do people still think they understand the Fed and its motivations? Look, I don’t fully understand … Continue reading Is This Risk ‘Off’ Enough for Formerly Greedy Bulls?
 As if on cue, out comes Anthony B. Sanders with… US Housing Starts Plunge Under Rising Interest Rates I agree with you, this does not look healthy. And this has been trending down on an intermediate basis. While these continue to rise. The measured target on the 30yr yield being above 3.5%. As the month of October moves past its half way point Q4 … Continue reading Homies & Real Estate: Does This Look Healthy?
Okay, this has got my full attention now. While long-term interest rates do this… …and this… The nominal Bank index is still doing this… While the S&P 500 and most US and global stock markets are green today. Hence, BKX/SPX is doing this… So what, I ask you, are the pigs doing under performing for such an extended period while long-term Treasury yields have been … Continue reading 10 & 30 Year Yields Up, Stock Market Up… Banks Down!
The trend continues against the inflationists, but there has been the bullish divergence by Baltic Dry Index (per this NFTRH chart), and the inflation trade has been very oversold, after all. BDI has been ramping while commodities (and global stocks) have been fading. Cyclical Palladium is bouncing vs. counter-cyclical Gold today. Industrial Metals are getting an oversold bounce vs. Gold. Commodities are getting an oversold … Continue reading Pictures of a Little Snap-Back in the Inflation Trade Today