What Thing Does Not Look Like the Other Things?

[edit] The degree to which gold has been bent out of shape by the drone strike and subsequent war drums informs Thing 2. But every day further from the event smooths the macro out back toward its regular signals I think. Plucky gold is still floating around up there after ticking the new high, but if it starts to lose cabin pressure that could put Thing 2 back in line with the other Things.

Well, Thing 2 has flopped and Things 1 & 3 were only in bounce mode to begin with. So if we are going to keep on with a macro reflation/inflation bounce trade Thing 2 needs to turn back up again. As it stands, I’ve been thinking Q4 2019, and possibly but not necessarily into Q1 2020. Last I looked it’s Q1 2020. Thing 2? You’re on.

tnx

The 10yr Treasury yield, industrial metals vs. the gold price and the inflation gauge TIP/TLT have generally been in alignment and so it is notable when they go out of alignment.

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