First, the Amigo that usually does not benefit from war, terror or pestilence after its initial impulsively bullish reactions. There’s always a first time, and it is a new bull market after all, but generally you do not want to be part of the knee jerking herds just now discovering gold as the answer to all their fears. It’s not. It’s a monetary anchor to value, not a bunker amid the war drums.
A snip from NFTRH 584 on gold…
Suffice it to say that right now it is testing the highs and we’d like to see it tick a new high before any pullback. That would be a positive for the uptrend. But the miners went red in-day on Friday and that is a negative sign to join the poor risk vs. reward in the CoT signals.
Well, on the gold price futures there’s the new high. What can I tell you other than you might want to remember anyone telling people to buy gold right now for the reasons all over the news? They are perma and they are promotional.
We’ve got the higher high, as anticipated. Gold is getting overbought on the daily chart (click charts for clearer view) as it stabs the resistance zone, and the bull market has kept its uptrend intact. Now let’s see how the news evolves and macro reacts. Speaking of which, war drums or not, the general backdrop is expected to be favorable well out into 2020 because among other things, the yield curve is expected to steepen.
Silver is also starting to become overbought on the daily. The implication of this attempted break above the next resistance level (18.14) would be a potential test of the highs. Actually, as with gold I’d like to see if it can tick a new high. Silver tends to get relatively less of a fear bid and relatively more of an inflation bid than gold.
The cyclical Amigo is doing as it should during a macro market fear fest. It is dropping from the resistance we noted as the Amigos rode into 2020. Next support begins at 2.75 and extends to the converged moving averages at around 2.70.
Once again, the weekly chart for more frame of reference. Copper does not really go bullish unless it takes out 3 and even then, the green bar shows the real bull gateway. So unless there is a real cyclical inflationary episode brewing, a copper bull is about a million miles away. That said, copper and the inflation trades are not yet indicated to be over just because Trump dropped a bomb on someone.
And here is what is in some ways the star of our show. WTI Crude Oil was the hyped up performer over a decade ago as the PEAK OIL!!! promotion made its rounds. Today it’s miles lower than at the crest of that hype fest. It’s just a commodity, but it is getting played to a degree.
It’s a lesser degree than I’d have thought but it goes to show how we are in a different world than 2007. There is a whole generation of people out there who don’t even know what PEAK OIL!!! was. They have new things to fear like global warming (I make no comment on whether or not that is a promotion because I am not well enough studied on it, but I knew in ’07 that PEAK OIL!!! was a promo, mainly by the pitch men who were promoting it).
WTI has resistance up above at 66 and a couple layers of support.
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