Copper makes the headlines, but GYX has been bullish all along; gold awaits its time as the message from metals land is bullish, risk ‘on’ and cyclical While copper went through its correction we have been noting each week in NFTRH that the Industrial Metals index, GYX had never aborted its bullish stance. Trends remained up and the index price held the SMA 50’s intermediate … Continue reading It’s not just Copper; GYX indicated cyclical the whole time
Let’s take a look at the headline industrial metal, copper. After a fake below the most recent bull flag/correction channel it has popped back into the flag. Key resistance to the bounce will be at the SMA 50 (4.47), which includes short-term lateral resistance (not drawn in). The larger macro fundamentals (let’s visualize just one of several indicators, the 30yr yield Continuum that we have … Continue reading NFTRH+; Updating a ‘reflation’ market
The indication from the metals is cyclical, pro-reflation and inflationary You cannot look at this chart and claim that the backdrop is not still firmly cyclical as the reflation created out of the fear and disgust of the year ago period continues apace. Think what you will about our dear leaders the economic eggheads, but at this moment they are still winning, duh. Tune out … Continue reading Copper & Industrial Metals vs. Gold
Metals & Mining SPDR vs. Gold Mining XME includes base and precious metals miners and also service centers and other related businesses. It’s a broad view of mining with a bias toward steel last time I checked (last year sometime). What more proof do you need of the gold miners’ relative counter-cyclicality than the XME/GDX ratio? When inflationary operations by Central Banks and governments start … Continue reading General Mining vs. Gold Mining
The daily chart shows the industrial metals still in pro-cyclical bounce mode vs. gold, while the Pd/Au ratio has long since collapsed. The weekly chart is not so friendly to the pro-cyclical, pro-reflation crowd. We do have other indicators in play that argue a cyclical inflation may be brewing, but this is not one of them. Not nearly yet. Subscribe to NFTRH Premium (monthly at … Continue reading Copper, Industrial Metals & Palladium vs. Gold
Pancake… err, Yellowcake is not distinguishing itself as the Uranium sector’s ignominy continues after not even participating in the recent global macro bounce-a-thon. Copper miners have failed the bounce along with the Economic Ph.D’d metal they toil and slave for. And here is the entirety of the Industrial Metals complex pancaking, and then some. Why, even Palladium is taking a crack from its near vertical … Continue reading Mineral/Metal Pancakes Anyone?
 The degree to which gold has been bent out of shape by the drone strike and subsequent war drums informs Thing 2. But every day further from the event smooths the macro out back toward its regular signals I think. Plucky gold is still floating around up there after ticking the new high, but if it starts to lose cabin pressure that could put … Continue reading What Thing Does Not Look Like the Other Things?
This post actually furthers a response to a colleague who wondered why I look at silver so closely instead of just industrial metals vs. gold. The answer I’ll note here (a little more wise-assedly than in my emailed response to this well researched, hard working manager for whom I have much respect) is no reason really, unless you want to get a look into the … Continue reading Why Use the Silver/Gold Ratio?
While saving the Silver/Gold ratio charts of the previous post into a chart list called Key Macro Indicators, I saw this old chart sitting there and thought it a good time to dust it off and post it. These are all items that should be positively correlated to an inflation trade, if applicable. As you can see there is no sign of a positive trend … Continue reading 3 Amigos of Inflation
Here is a weekly chart from NFTRH’s Market Internals segment showing Copper and Industrial Metals vs. Gold. In other words, showing cyclical metals vs. the metal of relative counter-cyclicality. The ratios have unsurprisingly bounced along with the 2019 relief rally but a 1 year downtrend is still intact. Au/Cu in the top panel continues to have its weekly moving averages triggered down. If the indicator … Continue reading Copper & IM vs. Gold
 Also see this post on inflation/deflation excerpted from NFTRH 525, hot off the presses. Crude Oil and Industrial Metals continue downward. This is significant per this NFTRH monthly chart showing these items and the broad CRB itself having hit trend lines from the 2008 highs. These pullbacks from long-term trend lines are notable and qualify cyclical commodities as risk indicators for the cyclical macro. … Continue reading Cyclical Commodities Continue to Weaken, Gold Moves in Relation
It sure is not positive economic – or for that matter inflationary – signaling as Industrial Metals lose the short-term consolidation and break down on Monday and Tuesday. That also goes for the GYX/Gold ratio. Not economically positive and not inflation-positive. Whether or not today is the start of a real rally, the stock market is technically damaged and the indicators are burping up signals … Continue reading Industrial Metals Breaking Down Again
As is usually the case if these riders are going to change the macro the damage starts at ground zero, the precious metals sector. Here is the Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR) slamming upward. The USD bull fund UUP was up hard at the behest of the GSR, per the theme of this morning’s pre-market post. Gold was down, but silver got hammered. While gold stock indexes/ETFs … Continue reading A Look at Some Damage as the 2 Horsemen Ride
So the Trade War Food Fight (TWFF) has hammered Doctor Copper and his Industrial Metals pals of late, along with the strong dollar (now taking a much needed pullback). But an old target remains active for GYX if the neckline shown here continues not to be broken in-month. The original target as plotted last year was 440 and the failure of support (now red shaded … Continue reading Industrial Metals Still in Play