In this post we set aside any personal thoughts about Trump and simply take him at his own words. If you believe I am wrong and decide to write me about it, you will need to back up your assertion with the reasons why Trump’s badgering of the Fed for policy that has in the past and will again hurt the lower and middle class … Continue reading Trump: Make America Mediocre (at best) Again
In for a Penny, in for a Pound I guess and so with this morning’s post opening the flood gates I will state my views and tell you that if you have a problem with them then… you are entitled to that. But you should think about facts along with your opinions. And if I offend you in some way you are welcome to email … Continue reading No Difference Between Trump & Obama in One Area
This is the opening segment from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 544. This segment is usually written before I’ve done the weekend work, which is cool because I get to compare the pre-work things I think I know with the post-work things I do know. Opening Notes: Time for a Turn? It would not be wise to take one day, … Continue reading Time for a Turn?
While the 30-5 year yield curve does this, implying some inflationary issues… The more commonly watched 10-2 year does this, implying ongoing Goldilocks… While the nominal 2 year yield does this, implying “ruh roh!”… This last chart is ugly, isn’t it? As I’ve banged you over the head about since Q4 2018, this chart is surely out front in the signals that the Fed takes … Continue reading Yield Curves, 2yr Yield, SPX (and a Crack Up Boom?)
Where once we dubbed him “Jerome ‘Dead Eye’ Powell” we now, well… you know. I gave some crap to the Twitter rabble rousers who fever pitched the bearish mobs about the Fed’s dovish roll over (man, must they be pissed now) but Powell was only following bond market signals (and by extension the economy’s signals) as the Fed softened up after being firm while the … Continue reading Jerome ‘Dove Eye’ Powell
Over at Biiwii Steve Saville makes the case to clearly refute the Twitter mob instigators riling ’em up against the Fed’s dovish rollover. What the Fed is Doing: Perception vs. Reality Despite the dovish talk coming out the Fed’s collective orifice and despite the Tweeting rabble rousers and despite what the wise guys think over at the CME Futures (virtually no chance of a hike in … Continue reading “The Fed is Still Tightening”
If there are any bears with enthusiasm left out there they may want to be watching the point from which SPX reached and reversed (a bit) today. The extreme target was 2815 and today’s high is close enough for government work. Minor support is at 2750 and better support is at 2625. Now, resistance is not a stop sign and this thing could test its … Continue reading SPX Hits Extreme Target & Recoils, VIX & GDP Now Tank
Here’s why. Much as I combated tooth and nail the BOND BEAR MARKET!!! b/s that got everyone off sides (risk ‘off’ bonds were contrarian bullish amid the hype) into the big stock market top in September so too will I combat the FED IS ROLLING OVER because… TRUMP!!!… because… the PPT!!!… because THEY ARE SPINLESS SYCOPHANTS to the WALL ST POWER BROKERS!!! b/s that boorish … Continue reading Why Again is Powell So Weak on the Funds Rate?
Like me or hate me, I think what I think and in this business that is part of my product (unlike, say, an office worker toiling away as a good company man while holding a veritable Vesuvius of thoughts within). I really like the addition of NFTRH’s Wild Card segment, because it allows me a massive range. Two weeks ago we broke down the Semiconductor … Continue reading Saturday Morning Cartoons
It’s our old friend the 2 year yield and its relationship to the S&P 500. The last time we checked in with this chart we noted that there was not yet a negative divergence between the 2yr yield and SPX. We have also noted that there was such a divergence in warning of the 2008 crash to come off of SPX Hump #2, but no … Continue reading A Talky Bond Yield Chart With a Story to Tell
A ‘wild card’ segment has been added to NFTRH reports because I wanted the freedom to go out of bounds in any direction, beyond our usual areas of disciplined coverage. Last week it was a look at the Semiconductor sector. This week it is Fed policy with a side trip down memory lane, trying once again to illustrate why today is not at all like … Continue reading Fed Doves Take Flight…
Trump’s tweet on Christmas Eve as the market continued to crater. Dear Donald, They have a perfectly good feel for the market, as they are merely balancing the scales of monetary and fiscal policy. You may be right on this one. The tariffs war has so many moving parts going in so many different directions it’s hard to know the end results. But the Fed … Continue reading “The only problem our economy has is the Fed”
One of the most disturbing scenes in the series Breaking Bad was when Todd shoots and kills a boy on a dirt bike after he witnessed Heisenberg, Jesse and Todd heist 900 gallons of methylamine. Jesse: “Todd, that Opie Dead Eyed piece of shit…” That is similar to the feeling I got after the Fed hiked the funds rate as expected, but then declined to … Continue reading Jerome ‘Dead Eye’ Powell
Below are the Opening Notes and Bond Market segments from last Sunday’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 530. Jerome Powell was actually more firm than I expected. Atta boy Jay! Aside from my prognostication the more important stuff (IMO) begins at the 4th paragraph. That is where I put on my tin foil hat and tell what I think. It does seem … Continue reading FOMC at Center Stage (NFTRH 530 excerpt)