In for a Penny, in for a Pound I guess and so with this morning’s post opening the flood gates I will state my views and tell you that if you have a problem with them then… you are entitled to that. But you should think about facts along with your opinions. And if I offend you in some way you are welcome to email me and tell me how, including where you may think I am making opinions instead of facts. Here are the facts as I see them and I’ll mark some opinions as such too.
Case #1: Obama
Obama is elected as the financial system is falling apart. The deflation taking hold is actually a righteous (opinion) unwinding of the previous inflation operations (fact) overseen by Alan Greenspan to the benefit of George Bush (opinion), who took over a deflating economy, post-Clinton. See a thread here?
Obama is feared far and wide by heavily armed bearded men in little Unibomber shacks (it’s humor as apparently that needs to be stated with peoples’ political hackles up) and other defenders of the good ole’ US of A and its constitution. The great redistributor is going to take from us and give to them!
Ah yeah, except that what the genteel and dignified Obama did was sit back and let Bernanke work his magic, and I do mean magic. No actually, I mean wizardry. Purely evil wizardry. Evil to the point where the rich got exponentially and unimaginably richer under the great socialist regime that our Unibomber shack dwellers feared. They were still in friggin’ shacks while the worst pigs on and off Wall Street moved to ever higher level penthouses. Under Obama.
In short, the gaps between rich and poor, haves and have-nots, upper and lower classes, asset owners and paycheck-to-paycheckers became worse than at any point in the modern era. Obama tried to put a dent in that through fiscal policies that were market and economically punitive and positive for ‘the people’. Trump’s future constituency took a beating because they were neither Obama’s ‘the people’ nor the pigs at the trough. They were stuck in the middle.
Case #2: Trump
Enter the anti-Obama, which almost had to happen (opinion) after 8 years of rich richer, poor less poor and working middle struggling ever more desperately under the Bernanke regime (ZIRP for 7 years and enough QEs to fill every pig’s trough 10 times over) that operated ruthlessly behind the scenes while the Obama administration made little dents around the periphery for its constituency.
Trump enters among a field of dolts in the Republican party and the daughter of Satan himself (opinions) served up by the Democrats. This failed casino operator (fact) and expert debt manipulator (opinion) spoke to the coal miners, factory workers and men in little Unibomber shacks. He spoke of a “great again” America, this man who, unlike myself and millions of others, had never dirtied his shoes on an American factory floor.
Out came rollbacks of corporate taxes, regulatory policies and most recently, a trade war primarily focused on China but including much of the world in its actions and/or implications. As noted in the previous post I find a lot of good in what this clown (opinion) has done, fiscally on the economic front at least. I disagree with most of his social policies and a lot of his regulatory and corporate tax policies as well. In short, I don’t mind taking on China and unfair trade and IP practices. In essence it’s good (opinion). Although, it is somewhat creepy (opinion) to me how every time the stock market drops Trump tweets sweet trade nothings to the markets. Pathetic, actually (opinion).
But the tweets… those damn tweets where the president is demanding the Fed inflict more of the same exact damaging policy that Bernanke inflicted under Obama. In Trump’s own words he wants ZIRP or zero interest rate policy (fact). In Trump’s own words he wants QE like a man he admires (the tweet is out there), Mario Draghi, is implementing (fact).
These policies demanded by Trump are exactly what sent the rich stratospherically richer and pressured the working classes ever more harshly under Obama, resulting in the election of the man warming over bromides from his heyday in the 70s and 80s. “Make America great again”? Well to do so don’t you think that calling on the Fed to administer more of what compromised and finally killed the greatness of America (i.e. its ‘land of opportunity for all’ reputation) is a rather suicidal action to a would-be great America?
Fact: printing money is the attempt to print inflation and have it manifest in asset prices. Fact (not opinion): Asset owners benefit from inflation because well, their assets go up in price. Fact (not opinion): Non-asset owners and people stretching paychecks to pay the bills are put under duress by the same dynamic as costs of living rise.
Oh wait, Trump is on Twitter every other day pumping the stock market, so there’s that… just buy all you hard core Trumpies and live happily ever after (sarcastic if sad opinion). To the worst, most dogmatic, non-reflective and politically motivated of you, I actually hope you do (fact). I will be selling to you.
Fact-based opinions based on my way too many years now watching, analyzing and managing this mess we call a financial system:
The Fed runs the show where peoples’ finances and livelihoods are generally concerned. Whatever political head of the 2-headed beast happens to be in office will slant the playing field in favor of its constituency, but it’s mostly temporary window dressing. That is because this system, this bloated latter stage Keynesian mess will lurch forward as long as the Fed can inflate to keep it from liquidating (remember the desperation so on display in Q4 2008?) and Trump is simply Obama in the Everyman’s clothing (well, not really, but work with me here).
Because the dynamics of the bond market continue allow for it the US Fed is promoting another inflation or at least allowing for it if not wooing it, unlike they did a year ago per my post that celebrated its 1 year birthday yesterday.
I know I am not speaking to everybody out there when I say this (certainly not most people who regularly read me) but wake up people, on both sides. Radical left and radical right. You’re taking the bait and using valuable energy toward hating each others’ ideologies as the real foe, the ultra rich and the bankers behind them, happily move on through yet another cycle of rich richer, poor poorer. As a general class, they fucking feed off you, the regular person perhaps a bit too sincere in your political beliefs (on either side) in this Keynesian-backed, two party system.
But if every single politically motivated and activated Trumpy and Lefty were to read this post it would not even make the tiniest dent in perceptions. And that is decidedly not great for America (opinion). That is because in this country and indeed in the modern developed world, there is a culture that exists in not questioning certain things. Plus, finance bores the shit out of most people (fact) and politics is much more interesting (opinion, but not mine…).
And with that, I will now try to get over this damn backache that has me in a sour mood and try to get in the Christmas spirit.