Below is the opening segment of the September 25 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 414... The Bank of Japan gave us a glimpse as to just how…
Why the tough talk out of one side of her mouth and 'other policy tools' language out of the other (ref. Yellen Lays Out Tools... )? Oh, I don't know. …
Okay, this is beyond what even I thought possible when noting in NFTRH 406 (ref. this post: A Treasure Trove of Nuggets From the MSM)... “Yes yes, I know the…
Approximately 15 seconds after FOMC whispered its latest sweet nothings to the asset markets it is propping, I posted the statement at Biiwii. In it they conceded that the economy…
[edit] Ah, she just mentioned the high "debt to GDP levels" in the Q&A. Thank you sir! Point made. She just jawboned QE 4, which is why I decided to…
Ever since beginning the ‘Macrosom‘ theme in July (and updating it here), NFTRH has been managing macro changes that would positively affect the gold sector, and quite possibly have a negative effect on broad stock markets. Early on in the precious metals bear market we noted they were “in the mirror” and opposite the stock market, which on the post-2011 cycle has been the beneficiary of the Fed’s inflation, instilling confidence in their policies by conventional market participants (after all, the right assets were going up on this cycle). In August, it appeared that the first real thrust in the direction of our macro theme kicked in as the stock market cracked.
The mechanism of this confidence racket, which allowed the promotion of inflation right through QE 3, has been a global deflationary force muting inflation signals and providing the US with a Goldilocks benefit as the US dollar strengthened. To this day the economy continues to ‘service itself’. Manufacturing and exports weakened under the regime of the strong USD, but those strong dollars bought a lot of services (which make up the vast majority of the economy) and consumer-related commodities.
Not only was there not a policy surprise – you know, in the face of recent commodity strength and those embedded services costs throughout the economy – but the Fed did not even talk tough, which I thought they might do. Maybe Yellen will wobble and speak out of both sides of her mouth at the press conference.
Here is the USD ETF flopping on the non-event.
Yesterday we reviewed the Scariest Chart in the World, an overly sensational tongue in cheek title for a chart that has bearish historical implications for the S&P 500. Here it…
As noted in the subscriber email that accompanied NFTRH 362: "NFTRH 362 trims back down to 22 pages, but makes a lot of points in those pages. In particular, despite…
I just discovered that one of my favorite data dumps, the St. Louis Fed, has a blog. It is now linked to the left as 'FRED Blog'. From FRED: FRED…
So next week the drama will unfold once again on Wednesday as a bunch of interest rate manipulators make a "decision". The 2 year yield has been telling them since…
It's all about confidence, right? Right. In 2011, when the commodity and 'inflation' trades blew out, the Federal Reserve was completely discredited, with gold bugs out front poking them in…
Stock Market to Janet Yellen: "I dare you to talk tough about Fed Funds rates. I double dare you!" SPY is at our NFTRH+ target, which does not mean it…
The title's quote is one of many eminently quotable messages I had the pleasure of receiving over a few years of contact with a late, great and a very interesting…