Short-Term Yields and the FOMC

So next week the drama will unfold once again on Wednesday as a bunch of interest rate manipulators make a “decision”.  The 2 year yield has been telling them since 2013 that there is no decision to make, rates should rise.

2yr.wk

The shorter-term view however, has retraced most of the ‘Jobs’ pump.  Speaking of ‘Jobs’, there are still few signs of concerning wage pressures.

2yr.5hr

While Uncle Buck boinks 100, which is a significant number because now, in diametrically opposed fashion to last summer when people should have been getting bullish, something approaching 100% of traders, investors, onlookers, etc. are bullish the buck.

usd

Meanwhile Intel becomes the latest major US corporation to use words/terms like “currency” and “exchange rates” as a source of scaled back expectations moving forward.

‘Jobs’ is a backward-looking thing after all.  You’ve got to look ahead.  The US dollar is pressuring the economy at the margins, as 100% expected per NFTRH in Q4 2014.

Now add in that there are few signs of inflation in the things that conventional economists look at and a stock market that may be launching a decent little correction and well, I just don’t think the Fed’s “decision” whatever that means, is so cut and dry.

I mean, why would they be compelled to raise rates any time soon?  To take their foot off of Grandma’s neck?  Please, they are agents of the financial establishment, not the community of Grandmas with bombed out savings account passbooks.

There is one guy who overtly expects Fed-controlled interest rates to rise from here.  His name is Uncle Buck and he is all-in.

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