Stock Market Snapshot

S&P 500 unsurprisingly did not follow through on yesterday's China hype-fueled rally.  Lateral support is shown along with two targets if support breaks.  The targets are plotted by 3 charts…

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GDX, GDXJ & GLDX Updated

We noted in NFTRH 336 that these ETFs had short-term support levels lower than where the prices stood as of the end of last week.  Today they reside at those…

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US Stock Market

Excerpted from NFTRH 336…

US Stock Market

We start with our perspective chart in case there is any doubt.  Janet Yellen is not to be taken so seriously, but the distortions built into this chart by post-2008 policy are.


We will manage markets by daily charts with in-week updates as needed, but the weekly charts, beginning with the leading Biotech index continues to be just fine.

A trend is not broken until it is broken.  This one is fully intact and last week’s put down or any to come that do not close below the blue arc line are just pullbacks within the trend.  One day it will break and bears will say “I told you so”, but in the meantime BTK has been a guide instructing against active bearishness.


Meanwhile, Biotech continues to lead the Nasdaq 100 and more than that, the ratio is in a secular bull market.  Now, I don’t want to go all bubble head on you but what is the implication here?  To me, given the long-term nature of this chart one implication is that one technology really is standing the test of time vs. the average of so many other technologies, from critically important ones to those silly ones that allow people to take selfies and pictures of their food so they can bore other people with them.

In other words, I buy the Biotech story, long-term.  That is different from calling Bio simply an important ‘momentum’ leader in the current late stage US stock bull market, which I believe it also is.



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NFTRH 336 Out Now

Well, I just wrote 42 pages.  I'm spent, so no big promo.  I am personally enjoying the market for what it gives and having a good year so far.  In…

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GDP Lame, Corporate Profits Decline & Bad Chicken

From the Commerce Department, GDP @ 2.2% and Corporate Profits declined in Q4, breaking a long trend up.  That is a major concern.  Here is a blurb from DoC (click…

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Gold Sector & Stock Market Snapshots

Gold Sector

Turning to the precious metals first, HUI made it to 175.62, which is a little lower than the ‘+/-‘ we have been tagging with the 180 target.  RSI held below 50 and while it could just be filling a little gap from last week, it does not look overly inspiring.  We continue to let those who obsess on the precious metals as if it is the only market on the planet micro manage this.  Nothing has changed yet, and that includes the fundamentals. There is no actionable bull signal beyond the bounce.  180 +/- remains the target for now, but this thing must get in gear quickly.


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SPX Bounce Target Revision

[edit]  It goes without saying that if today's bounce fails and SPX goes on to make new lows, the analysis from this morning is back on.  Though 2090 is a…

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Biotechs Updated

Yesterday we noted the Biotechs had lower to go, and lower they went.  Typical of today's momo driven markets IBB took the express elevator right to the projected support zone…

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Plans for S&P 500, Gold & Gold Miners

S&P 500

Per the simplified big picture daily, weekly and monthly charts of SPX first introduced 6 weeks ago in NFTRH 329, we have been managing potential downside targets of 2000 and 1900.

If SPX were to hit either of these targets it would not kill the bull market, especially if 2000 holds.  In that case it would be a normal, moderate and healthy correction.


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Biotech Looks to Go Lower

I would be careful here on Biotech.  The reversal candle signaled a fallout from a mini blow off.  The level to which IBB became over bought implied the momo players…

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Euro Area PMI’s Continue Upward

The European 'me too' play to the US' previous QE operations is working like a charm as manufacturing purchasing managers continue to buy at an increasing pace.  PMI has increased…

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Market Update; HUI & Precious Metals Indicators

The bounce has materialized, as anticipated.  This almost had to happen given the vastly improved CoT structure for gold, the over sold levels of the stocks and the “puke” sentiment noted a couple weeks ago.

The first target on HUI is 180 (+/-).  What we have going on there is a gap to be filled and a resistance area that has very clearly held support and provided resistance for the last 6 months.



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