USD and Euro
I'll let you extrapolate for yourself based on the theme; with the theme being that 2 major currencies at the heart of so many current trends are ripe for reversal. …
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March 11, 2015
Multi-Market Update
US Stock Market
S&P 500 is +5% today in pre-market and I have not covered my short position on SPY, although for NFTRH+ purposes, the preliminary bearish trading target was 206 (SPY closed yesterday at 204.98). So that trade is complete.
I expect SPX to eventually move down to the support zone at 2000 +/-, where the decision would then be made as to whether or not we are going to test lower levels. So interim bounces could be additional shorting opportunities, as was Monday’s little joy fest.
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March 11, 2015
USD/EUR
So here we have a QE-inflated Euro tanking per ECB's wishes and an impulsive Uncle Buck, which you must know is not on the Fed's wish list (hello ZIRP). There…
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March 10, 2015
Europe Brightens
It is getting downright giddy in Euro Land these days, just as NFTRH anticipated when we began writing about the effects of the strong US dollar/weak Euro dynamic back in…
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March 10, 2015
Employment, the Economy & Interest Rates
In light of the positive February Employment report NFTRH 333 opened up with some discussion of the details (the devil after all, is in those details)…
Employment, the Economy & Interest Rates
The February Employment report was a strong +295,000 with unemployment dropping to 5.5%. In Friday’s Market Notes update we highlighted that per BLS this was a services-driven report as the leading edge of the economy, the smaller but key manufacturing and industrial sectors, have begun to decelerate (notably in forward-looking ‘New Orders’).
From FloatingPath.com (markups mine) we see the breakdown…
So it makes sense that ‘Jobs’ were strong because the large ‘back end’ of the US economy is responding to the years of corporate profit increases, stock market gains (wealth effect) and an overall benevolent Fed that has, every step of the way since 2008, done all it could to keep asset markets aloft (1st) and in appreciation mode (2nd). Call them Things 1 & 2, mission accomplished.
Leisure and Hospitality… America’s getting out there again, living it up and feeling secure with the gains that eventually came from the post-2012 period, after we got our first little inkling two years ago in January of 2013 with the Semiconductor Equipment ramp up. I had no idea then how strong the economy would eventually become, but the massive services sectors in the US are now fully kicked in and enjoying the benefits.
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March 9, 2015
NFTRH 333 Out Now
Just moving along in 'swing' mode, doing what the markets tell us to do and not trying to force anything. Simple, but it works.
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March 8, 2015
Market Notes
Employment for February is +295,000 and unemployment is down to 5.5%. The US dollar rocketed upward and more importantly, so too did short-term interest rates (esp. in relation to long-term…
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March 6, 2015
NFTRH+; SPY
[edit] As noted in the email: Note: My apologies for posting it so late in the day. In fact I am delaying this email a few more minutes so that…
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March 5, 2015
Machine Tool Sales Data Continue to Degrade
EDA has compiled US Machine Tool sales data for January and it was not good at all. This is the leading edge of manufacturing and it is trending lower. 'But…
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March 5, 2015
Crude Oil
Crude oil has bumped back above the MA 50 and bears watching here. In this morning’s update it was noted that commodities are not interesting until there is a reason for interest. This is a preliminary one.
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March 4, 2015
Market Update
US Stock Market
Nasdaq hit 5000, market sentiment became over bullish to an extreme and yesterday was a down day. Indexes put a tail on their candles and closed above the low of the previous day. SPX was the worst potential offender of the major indexes yesterday. Had it closed below Monday’s low we’d have noted that as short-term bearish.
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March 4, 2015
Tilting at Golden Windmills
As posted at Biiwii this morning…
There is a writer we’ll call Don Quixote who is tilting at something that no longer really exists… the evil gold promoters that used to be taken seriously by innocents to the tune of near total destruction of their portfolios.
Don once went on about the gold cult and I even highlighted his post because I had been going about the gold cult as well. The cult-like aspect of the gold “community” (← a dead giveaway) was real, and the group-think that the 2001-2011 bull market fostered was very strong and really damaging to those who did not question its tenets until it was too late.
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March 3, 2015
Market Sentiment Hideously Over Bullish
Folks, with the SOX hovering just below target, the Biotech sector arcing upward, the Russell 2000 having broken to the upside, the VIX back near its lows, Nasdaq 5000 headlines...…
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March 3, 2015
ISM PMI @ 52.9
ISM has eased again and looking at the comments from individual respondents, it sure looks like the West Coast port shutdown is having an impact. Some notables are highlighted. Meanwhile,…
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March 2, 2015