FOMC Today
5+ hours until the next rate hike. According to the futures wise guys @ CME Group the Fed will be boosting by another .25% today. My large SHV position thanks…
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September 26, 2018
A Macro (Amigos) Update for Mid-Summer
You have better things to do than read droning macro analysis or long, drawn out investment theses. It is a weekend in the dead of summer and for that reason…
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July 13, 2018
Yield Decline to Persist?
Public sentiment, so well tended to the bond-bearish side of the boat by the media and its experts, is not yet fixed (i.e. not yet over bullish or even bullish)…
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July 6, 2018
Aftermath of the Latest Bonds/Yields Media Hype Campaign
None other than "BOND KING" Bill Gross was served up on a platter (along with side orders of Dalio, Tudor Jones and Gundlach) for mainstream financial media readers to consume.…
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June 25, 2018
Inflation Trade, in Progress Since Gold Kicked it Off in Q1 2016
I am sure you remember the lead up to Q1 2016. The US economy and stock market were transitioning from a Goldilocks environment and narrowly avoiding a bear market while…
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June 14, 2018
The Continuum ™ Updated
We have watched every step of the way as the 10yr yield hit and now crossed through its target of 2.9%. But what of the big daddy, AKA the 30yr…
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May 17, 2018
Media Play-by-Play in Full Flight as Market Pukes, Yield Limiters Hold
They are giving us the play-by-play on why the stock market is puking (click the headline to go to Bloomberg and read all about it). It's all about 3% on…
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April 24, 2018
Why Pay Attention to Sector/Yield Relationships?
Because certain sectors like Materials, Industrials (both of which I am short) and Financials (why am I not short?) tend to benefit when bond yields are rising. Others, like the…
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March 22, 2018
From Our Contrary Perch, an Update on Bonds
[edit] Today I took profit (principal & interest) on 7-10 year Treasury fund IEF in order to concentrate on the shorter end of the curve for 'cash equivalent' income. With…
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March 14, 2018
Bonds and Related Indicators; From NFTRH 490
This morning's post highlighting Jim Grant's bond market/interest rate views (by way of Heisenberg) prompts me to reproduce publicly NFTRH 490's short bond segment. I may be known as the…
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March 12, 2018
Inflation, Deflation and Bonds/Yields
Well, Biiwii certainly is busy this morning with burning questions about inflation, deflation and especially the bond market. Charlie Bilello checks in from a practical standpoint (and later will have…
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March 12, 2018
Steve Saville Channels His Inner Gold Bug
He is one of the rational gold bugs, mind you. In this post he discusses interest rates and the increasing desire to save among casino patrons (my term, obviously), which…
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March 5, 2018
Treasury Yields: A Stroll Through Recent History
So how long ago did we begin seriously entertaining higher long-term Treasury yields? Well, per these posts, it was before Halloween that we noted the daily chart breakouts and began…
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February 27, 2018
Bonds and Related Market Indicators
The following is an excerpt from this week's edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 488. For NFTRH bonds are not just an asset class 'throw-in' but instead are…
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February 26, 2018