Eggheads assemble, as FOMC meets Ooh, can’t you just cut the tension with a knife? FOMC is going to hike the funds rate by at least .75% tomorrow and according to 18% of CME Fed Funds traders, potentially a full percentage point. The Fed is taking its commands (not direction, not suggestion, not indication, not even demands, but commands) from the bond market seriously. The … Continue reading T-minus 1 day, 4 hours and 42 minutes…
I can’t shake the feeling that we are at a meaningful juncture, as the yield on the 30yr Treasury bond continues to bounce. It’s still a daily chart downtrend, but it has had a bullish flavor for a while now. But I am waiting for indicators like the KBE (Banks)/SPY (SPX) ratio to confirm. This morning, the Pigs continue to be locked down relative to … Continue reading There Goes the Long Bond’s Yield
Assuming a bullish market, one of the key considerations about sector positioning is the state of long-term yields and their relationship to short-term yields. For example, segments that tend to be more positively correlated with rising yields are Materials, Industrials, Financials, some Commodities and even Semiconductors. These are very cyclical areas whereas big Tech and internet-based services are less cyclical, as are defensives like Healthcare … Continue reading NFTRH; Back in Rising Yields Mode?
Something changed just before, during and after Armageddon ’08. That something is that the impulsive rise in growth stocks vs. value stocks (2007-2009) then maintained a grinding uptrend until a hyper trend (i.e. bubble) began to form in 2017. And this year it’s just been full frontally vertical. Why would this be? Well, the easy answer (or promotion) will be that growth stocks are growing … Continue reading A Closer Look at Growth vs. Value Stocks
In fact, it’s bananas all around! Bananas for you. Bananas for me… Trump wants the US dollar lower. Period. The currency is one measure of the US relative standing in the world. Why should we be special? Let’s get down in the trenches and fight this currency war the American way; all in baby! It is and has been a game of global Currency Whack-a-Mole, … Continue reading Give That Man a Banana!
Of course, we knew it was in the bag the whole time. But today the Fed plays its role of hyper-sensitive micro-manager of the leveraged system to perfection. Click headline, get article (if you want). Corona effing virus strikes again. Now the game is to determine whether we’ll sell the news, fill the upside gaps, allow gold stocks to go back to acting as independent … Continue reading And… the Money Shot: Fed Cuts .5% to No One’s Surprise
Hey, it’s not me speculating upon that. It’s the CME wise guys. A Corona-cut is on the way. On Friday we noted 100% chance of a cut with a 27% chance it would be a .5% cut. Well, now things appear more dire, or bullish, or bearish or… frankly, pathetic (in my opinion). A thus far moderate health disaster comes along and this system cannot … Continue reading 100% Chance of a .5% Point Cut in March
If you hurry, you may just be able to eek eke [thank you Mr. ‘Eagle Eye’ Turner!] out a mortgage for the fine abode shown above! Mortgage rates fall to lowest level since 2016 — this could be the ‘last affordable’ spring home-buying season for a while, Realtor group warns If this broad cacophony were not so funny I’d actually have contempt for it. You’ve … Continue reading “Realtor Group” Warns?? Are you Kidding Me?
I don’t mind telling you that I tend to tune everybody out in favor of the market. That includes mainstream Wall Street types, perma-bulls, perma-bears, speed freaks & momos, doom & gloomers and heavily armed bearded men writing on laptops in little Unibomber shacks. It also includes the Mises Institute, which I have linked at this very website. I tune out smart people (oh, how … Continue reading Mises Goes Mainstream, Calls Bull
According to CME Group, rate cut probabilities declined yesterday to even odds from a previous reading that was near unanimous for a cut. Today it is back to 59% for a cut, 41% no cut. But the odds allow for a legitimate chance for either outcome. In NFTRH 568’s Opening Notes segment we looked at 3 options. A caveat to ongoing analysis is that change … Continue reading NFTRH; Updating the Options, pre-FOMC
An email from a subscriber prompts this mini update here at T-minus 1 day to FOMC. In response to this morning’s rate cut probabilities post Mark asked my thoughts about how a Fed ‘hold’ instead of ‘cut’ and the Saudi/oil news could affect broad stocks and gold miners. Being just a faulty human all I can do is guess like everyone else, but wanted to … Continue reading NFTRH; On Rates, Gold, Miners and Stocks
While a majority of wise guys still expect the Fed to cut the Funds Rate tomorrow, the percentage has dropped significantly, from what I seem to remember as near-unanimous in the upper 90% area to a situation where a negative surprise actually has a decent chance, according to players who are guessing the outcome as part of making their living. Now, Jerome Powell would not … Continue reading Rate Cut Probabilities Have Dropped Significantly
 My friend Scott chimes in thusly… “Oh, nice post this morning, all I can say and ever say is what Pete Townsend so accurately wrote in Won’t Get Fooled Again: “meet the new boss, same as the old boss”” The man who made a career leveraging daddy’s seed money, gaming the business bankruptcy system (6 times) and a whole lot of debt to become … Continue reading Out of Control Trump Urges Zero % Interest Rates [w/edit]
Da boyz on da CME is still cuttin’ da rate… 93% say 1/4 point in September. That one seems – and is – rather obvious. October has 56% of the wise guys going for 50 bips from today. December sees 30% looking for .75. Subscribe to NFTRH Premium (monthly at USD $35.00 or a discounted yearly at USD $365.00) for an in-depth weekly market report, … Continue reading CME Group Rate Cut Probabilities