Musk and the bond market are in a convenient alignment, but the bond market situation has been in progress since 2023 Our (NFTRH) view has been for falling inflation signals…
In the shadow Trump tariffs, an interest rate cutting regime does not seem likely This man wants his Tariff cake and he wants to eat it too. The implication of…
As the economy slows, the mortgage refinance boom is among the components of the "Goldilocks" economy Some media (along with anecdotal sources witnessed on X) are trumpeting how strong the…
Jerome Powell speech on interest rates indicates renewed hawkishness; but is the Fed behind the curve again, as they were in taking up the inflation fighting mantle? It will be…
Eggheads assemble, as FOMC meets Ooh, can't you just cut the tension with a knife? FOMC is going to hike the funds rate by at least .75% tomorrow and according…
I can't shake the feeling that we are at a meaningful juncture, as the yield on the 30yr Treasury bond continues to bounce. It's still a daily chart downtrend, but…
Assuming a bullish market, one of the key considerations about sector positioning is the state of long-term yields and their relationship to short-term yields. For example, segments that tend to…
Something changed just before, during and after Armageddon '08. That something is that the impulsive rise in growth stocks vs. value stocks (2007-2009) then maintained a grinding uptrend until a…
In fact, it's bananas all around! Bananas for you. Bananas for me... Trump wants the US dollar lower. Period. The currency is one measure of the US relative standing in…
Of course, we knew it was in the bag the whole time. But today the Fed plays its role of hyper-sensitive micro-manager of the leveraged system to perfection. Click headline,…
Hey, it's not me speculating upon that. It's the CME wise guys. A Corona-cut is on the way. On Friday we noted 100% chance of a cut with a 27%…
If you hurry, you may just be able to eek eke [thank you Mr. 'Eagle Eye' Turner!] out a mortgage for the fine abode shown above! Mortgage rates fall to…
I don't mind telling you that I tend to tune everybody out in favor of the market. That includes mainstream Wall Street types, perma-bulls, perma-bears, speed freaks & momos, doom…
According to CME Group, rate cut probabilities declined yesterday to even odds from a previous reading that was near unanimous for a cut. Today it is back to 59% for…