Yield Decline to Persist?

Public sentiment, so well tended to the bond-bearish side of the boat by the media and its experts, is not yet fixed (i.e. not yet over bullish or even bullish) [edit] with respect to a bond bear or an epic rise in yields.

Here’s the still contrarian bullish sentiment on the 30yr bond showing excess pessimism in bonds (source: Sentimentrader).

30 year bond

Here’s the still contrarian bullish Commercial Hedgers data, still net long.

30 year bond

And here of course is our home-cooked Continuum ™ of 30yr yields enslaved below the monthly chart’s EMA 100. Funny how yields pulled back and bonds bounced despite the best intentions of the media and its bull horned headlines and expert opinions (often sensationally stated as fact).

I’ll continue to make no comment on whether or not a bond bear is starting because I am not a swami (AKA a guru, the likes of which are more than happy to make predictions for you left and right and then tout the lucky guesses into perpetuity), but I will continue to make a comment that as of 10:25 US Eastern Time on July 6 the limiter has held, and people would have done well to have tuned out the experts yet again a few months ago.

We here at nftrh.com and especially NFTRH Premium were well prepared.

Experts as Contrary Indicators (Bonds Edition) –March 28th


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