What the public thinks is "inflation", CPI, rose more than expected Here is the table of components of the March CPI report. You can click it to read the whole…
On the occasion of another standout payrolls report, we note that the macro is indeed changing beneath the surface Another payrolls report, another beat of expectations. Here is the breakdown…
Mohamed Aly El-Erian has it right; the Fed is a play-by-play caller A play-by-play caller with multiple orifices always at the ready to eat a microphone and influence the mindset…
Why are gold and commodities up and stocks under pressure as long-term interest rates rise? Because, this... The 10-2 yield curve is threatening to resume steepening. The uplift from the…
Updating gold ratios to other markets using associated ETFs Sure, gold is a pretty and heavy object that people fall in love with (and express their love with). But it…
A little discussion about this thing we call "inflation" after the January CPI report A vast majority of people see inflation as rising prices, wages and 'pushed' costs within the…
January CPI ticks up .3%, market reacting predictably in full submission to the great and powerful Fed of Oz Click image, get the news, hot off the presses! We have…
In the last few weeks we have been allowing for, even anticipating a renewed bout of inflation concerns as the yield curve (10-2) steepens, nominal yields had dropped significantly to…
Notes From the Rabbit Hole, #795 Summary omitted this week as NFTRH 795 goes conversational on a weekend when an unexpected commitment popped up. "No Landing" (until after the election?)…
The new Yield Curve steepener has not yet un-inverted, but it's in progress and thus far mildly inflationary Reference Inflationary Yield Curve Steepening? from January 11. In my opinion, after…
Below is the opening segment of this week's edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 792 Bond Market, Gold, Yield Curve and the Changes to Come While it is…
After a gentle disinflationary easing (Goldilocks), the bond market is hinting at an inflationary steepening of the 10yr-2yr yield curve A yield curve can steepen under inflationary or deflationary pressure.…
The seasonal party continues but, danger is ahead The strategy of how to navigate what is ahead has been generally covered in NFTRH and with post-FOMC clarity, it is being…