About that 30 year Treasury yield

30 year Treasury bond yield pulls back from 4.4% to 3.4% (on cue)

I’d like to not so humbly note for public readers that long before the rising rates hysteria came near its peak prior to flaming out, this (now public) NFTRH update from last February noted a target at around the 4% level per a small breakout on the daily chart and a measurement on the 30 year Treasury yield ‘Continuum’ chart. That was back when the yield was below 2.2%.

30 year treasury bond yield 'continuum'

Now the yield is pulling back heavily from the target zone and is at a point where any bump in inflation signals (if applicable) or Fed hawk anxiety could see it find temporary support (at 3.2% or so). While I am in the deflationary camp for H1, 2023 I would not be buying the long bond here. Maybe on a bounce to 3.9% or maybe not at all.

I have bigger fish to fry in 2023 than long-term Treasury bonds. Those fried fish are the vehicles to use when awesome macro indicators like this do their indicating thing for you, ahead of time (as they should in a perfect world).

30 year treasury bond yield (tyx)

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