NFTRH+; Growth/Value & Tech/Broad

After adding GOOGL this morning to go along with other items I consider somewhat negatively correlated to long-term yields (DVAX, TWST, ZM, META w/ MSFT on priority watch) and thus, inflation, I thought I’d put up an update about this rebalancing from an ‘inflation trade’ allocation (although commodity related NOG, MOS & NTR have also been added back recently) to more of a contrarian ‘Goldilocks/disinflation’ … Continue reading NFTRH+; Growth/Value & Tech/Broad

NFTRH+; Growth vs. Value

It appears that Growth/Value may have topped out with the short-term bottom and bounce in long-term yields. If yields break through and reestablish a real uptrend then insofar as we’d be bullish on stocks (personally, not far) then as in the July 2020 to March 2021 period, Value would be favored. So aside from the inflationary/deflationary questions of the moment, this is another consideration if … Continue reading NFTRH+; Growth vs. Value

Rotation to Growth & Tech as illustrated by ROKU (w/ NFTRH 660 excerpt)

Market has been rotating back to growth from value and reflation-sensitive areas It was all about long-term interest rates and the beginnings of the at least temporary failure of the inflation/reflation trades. Over the last several weeks I’ve been rotating in anticipation (with the biggest rotation being into cash), holding some big Tech and a few growth stocks like ROKU. If you look hard enough … Continue reading Rotation to Growth & Tech as illustrated by ROKU (w/ NFTRH 660 excerpt)

NFTRH+; Cloudy with a chance of thunder

The title is my way of saying CLOU and other growth areas have a chance to rally while bond yields drop. With the back-off in yields growth stocks are logically getting a bounce in relation to value stocks, just as it worked in reverse when yields were rising. Since I view the bigger picture as one where yields will rise again this is only considered … Continue reading NFTRH+; Cloudy with a chance of thunder

Your Macro guide, the 30yr Treasury yield

30yr Treasury yield and markets/internals tied to it What markets and market internals are dependent upon an inflationary rise in long-term yields? Anyone? Beuller? For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed interim market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. You can also keep up to date … Continue reading Your Macro guide, the 30yr Treasury yield

NFTRH+; Machines Gone Wild, the Day After

Broad Markets As noted this morning to subscriber R.D. who emailed talking about the rotation to value and how it appeared machine driven. R.D…. It does seem obvious to me that you have to pre position your value bets for the unpredictable day that the machines change their minds.  Me… EXACTLY. It felt like the damn machines to me too. Pre-programmed for covid.cure=rotation.to.value I had … Continue reading NFTRH+; Machines Gone Wild, the Day After

A Closer Look at Growth vs. Value Stocks

Something changed just before, during and after Armageddon ’08. That something is that the impulsive rise in growth stocks vs. value stocks (2007-2009) then maintained a grinding uptrend until a hyper trend (i.e. bubble) began to form in 2017. And this year it’s just been full frontally vertical. Why would this be? Well, the easy answer (or promotion) will be that growth stocks are growing … Continue reading A Closer Look at Growth vs. Value Stocks