This is not your Grandpa’s Inflation problem The Fed is starting to play catch-up with inflation signals from the bond market as evidenced by the Fed Funds Rate finally being pulled upward by the implications of the rising 3 month T-bill yield, among other more obvious signals like the long since rising 2yr Treasury yield and ongoing inflation headlines we read about every day. After … Continue reading The Inflation Mutation
WTI Crude Oil fans along on its bullish way Back in April we (well, NFTRH) identified WTI in a bullish looking consolidation spiking above and below the SMA 50. I wanted to buy USO but first had to check to see if this sometimes inefficient oil tracker was doing its job. The ratio of USO to WTIC shows that it has been doing its job … Continue reading Crude Oil breaking consolidation
NFTRH 703 noted the buyable look of crude oil and bullish Natural Gas. This morning I added USO for these reasons… The daily chart, as noted in #703 The seasonal, which is still up through the summer (on average) Commercial hedgers (net shorts) books are far from a sell signal Public optimism is middling and muted at best As noted in the trade log, USO … Continue reading NFTRH+; More on Oil & Gas (ref. NFTRH 703)
A macro view for stocks, commodities and gold The article’s title is one man asking one question among several I could be asking, given the volatility of macro indicators on a day to day, week to week basis. But as FOMC rides off into the sunset it is the scenario that I think is most probable, given the current state of some indicators we follow. … Continue reading Final rally for stocks, commodities to top, and a final down leg for gold?
Cathie Wood calls for a drop in oil prices And well, at least she’s got the seasonal average on her side. Ugh, if the seasonal stays true to its 30 year average, the decline begins almost literally today. Ah, but all due caveats about the inaccuracies of seasonal averages in any given year. From Sentimentrader: But back to Ms. Wood. Maybe it has to … Continue reading Cathie Wood conjures ghosts of yore
Daily Shot Brief, April 21 Just a reminder, you may want to bookmark and keep an eye on this excellent daily info dump. Below are a couple of items from the most recent DSB linked above. I have no affiliation with this site other than as a reader who sometimes presents quality destinations for his own readers. This one reminds us that profit margins had … Continue reading Daily Shot on US profit contraction, Crude Oil & more
I was entertaining the idea of adding USO or some other crude oil related exposure this morning due to the chart of WTIC, per NFTRH 569’s Commodities segment. The gap up was on hype, but the hype was based on a real event, was it not? So it would be fundamental, at least for a period of time. The chart, when tuning out all of … Continue reading Oil’s Seasonal Pattern
It may well have some lasting effect since it was a substantial attack with real supply implications. But you are now being called to action by the headlines, told which oil plays will show the biggest reactions and generally why this is such a big deal. You can hit the image to get the article that is filled with commentary about the whats, whys and … Continue reading Mega Oil Knee Jerk
While the hype is aiding my position in Russia (ERUS) it is hype nonetheless. As for gold, well… that didn’t last long. Of course that should be no surprise. You see a headline touting geopolitical tensions and gold, you run don’t walk the other way. Gold Prices Recover from 2019 Lows as U.S.-Iran Tensions Mount This hype is especially pumping oil itself. NFTRH’s original rally … Continue reading Crude Oil Hype Abounds
For me – and NFTRH in general – Energy has been an ‘avoid’ all year. Currently, XLE is on a daily chart breakdown that it tried and failed to remedy yesterday. The monthly chart shows a long-term uptrend that is intact. Now the Head and 2 Shoulders drawn in is really just TA ‘men who stare at charts’ type stuff… unless XLE loses 60. This … Continue reading Precarious Energy Sector
In a post on Tuesday I claimed that all you could hear in the gold “community” were crickets. And that is largely the case at the gold websites; with the exception of a few bugs that are perma-bullish and a few that are bearish. In full disclosure I myself noted the sordid (technical) mess that is the Gold Bugs Index back on the 13th. Back … Continue reading Among the Crickets, Gold Bears Roam a Barren Landscape
The tweet says it all. A problem with the president’s logic is that crude oil is part of the cyclical, risk ‘on’ macro amalgam. The Saudis did not decide to let prices fall. Prices are falling. Period. Whatever manipulations the Saudis may or may not have attempted have limited efficacy. What, they drove oil down to $34 (WTI) in 2009 and $26 in 2016? I … Continue reading “Oil Prices Getting Lower. Great!”
[edit] Also see this post on inflation/deflation excerpted from NFTRH 525, hot off the presses. Crude Oil and Industrial Metals continue downward. This is significant per this NFTRH monthly chart showing these items and the broad CRB itself having hit trend lines from the 2008 highs. These pullbacks from long-term trend lines are notable and qualify cyclical commodities as risk indicators for the cyclical macro. … Continue reading Cyclical Commodities Continue to Weaken, Gold Moves in Relation
It’s an over obsessed upon commodity, previously hyped for its (Hubbert’s) “peak” status by “experts” like T Boone Pickens and a whole clown show of promoters amplified by the media at the time. Now WTI Crude Oil has reached a thick resistance zone (as managed in NFTRH for the last couple of years) and may be breaking down from a peak of a whole other … Continue reading Positive Implications for Gold Miners if Crude Oil Breaks Down
