The Inflation Mutation

This is not your Grandpa’s Inflation problem The Fed is starting to play catch-up with inflation signals from the bond market as evidenced by the Fed Funds Rate finally being pulled upward by the implications of the rising 3 month T-bill yield, among other more obvious signals like the long since rising 2yr Treasury yield and ongoing inflation headlines we read about every day. After … Continue reading The Inflation Mutation

NFTRH+; More on Oil & Gas (ref. NFTRH 703)

NFTRH 703 noted the buyable look of crude oil and bullish Natural Gas. This morning I added USO for these reasons… The daily chart, as noted in #703 The seasonal, which is still up through the summer (on average) Commercial hedgers (net shorts) books are far from a sell signal Public optimism is middling and muted at best As noted in the trade log, USO … Continue reading NFTRH+; More on Oil & Gas (ref. NFTRH 703)

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Final rally for stocks, commodities to top, and a final down leg for gold?

A macro view for stocks, commodities and gold The article’s title is one man asking one question among several I could be asking, given the volatility of macro indicators on a day to day, week to week basis. But as FOMC rides off into the sunset it is the scenario that I think is most probable, given the current state of some indicators we follow. … Continue reading Final rally for stocks, commodities to top, and a final down leg for gold?

Cathie Wood conjures ghosts of yore

Cathie Wood calls for a drop in oil prices And well, at least she’s got the seasonal average on her side. Ugh, if the seasonal stays true to its 30 year average, the decline begins almost literally today. Ah, but all due caveats about the inaccuracies of seasonal averages in any given year. From Sentimentrader:   But back to Ms. Wood. Maybe it has to … Continue reading Cathie Wood conjures ghosts of yore

Daily Shot on US profit contraction, Crude Oil & more

Daily Shot Brief, April 21 Just a reminder, you may want to bookmark and keep an eye on this excellent daily info dump. Below are a couple of items from the most recent DSB linked above. I have no affiliation with this site other than as a reader who sometimes presents quality destinations for his own readers. This one reminds us that profit margins had … Continue reading Daily Shot on US profit contraction, Crude Oil & more

Crude Oil Hype Abounds

While the hype is aiding my position in Russia (ERUS) it is hype nonetheless. As for gold, well… that didn’t last long. Of course that should be no surprise. You see a headline touting geopolitical tensions and gold, you run don’t walk the other way. Gold Prices Recover from 2019 Lows as U.S.-Iran Tensions Mount This hype is especially pumping oil itself. NFTRH’s original rally … Continue reading Crude Oil Hype Abounds

Among the Crickets, Gold Bears Roam a Barren Landscape

In a post on Tuesday I claimed that all you could hear in the gold “community” were crickets. And that is largely the case at the gold websites; with the exception of a few bugs that are perma-bullish and a few that are bearish. In full disclosure I myself noted the sordid (technical) mess that is the Gold Bugs Index back on the 13th. Back … Continue reading Among the Crickets, Gold Bears Roam a Barren Landscape

Cyclical Commodities Continue to Weaken, Gold Moves in Relation

[edit] Also see this post on inflation/deflation excerpted from NFTRH 525, hot off the presses. Crude Oil and Industrial Metals continue downward. This is significant per this NFTRH monthly chart showing these items and the broad CRB itself having hit trend lines from the 2008 highs. These pullbacks from long-term trend lines are notable and qualify cyclical commodities as risk indicators for the cyclical macro. … Continue reading Cyclical Commodities Continue to Weaken, Gold Moves in Relation

Positive Implications for Gold Miners if Crude Oil Breaks Down

It’s an over obsessed upon commodity, previously hyped for its (Hubbert’s) “peak” status by “experts” like T Boone Pickens and a whole clown show of promoters amplified by the media at the time. Now WTI Crude Oil has reached a thick resistance zone (as managed in NFTRH for the last couple of years) and may be breaking down from a peak of a whole other … Continue reading Positive Implications for Gold Miners if Crude Oil Breaks Down