Cathie Wood conjures ghosts of yore

Cathie Wood calls for a drop in oil prices

And well, at least she’s got the seasonal average on her side.

Ugh, if the seasonal stays true to its 30 year average, the decline begins almost literally today. Ah, but all due caveats about the inaccuracies of seasonal averages in any given year. From Sentimentrader:

crude oil seasonal average


But back to Ms. Wood. Maybe it has to do with all the story stocks in her ARKK portfolio and maybe it has to do with the look on her face (I see “I am smarter than you, one of the best and brightest”). But I can’t help conjuring “Queen of the internet” Mary Meeker. She looks smarter than me too.

Now, this is not some misogynistic post about women in finance. Indeed, I correspond regularly with a woman who was a long-time executive at a big firm and think very highly of her. Besides, back in 1999-2000 ole’ Mary had… who’s that guy?… in a side car. He was a Merrill Lynch guy, internet genius who later swore it all off, reformed his ways and became something of a market reporter.

Oh yes, Henry Blodget. Yet again, smarter than me. Best, brightest.

henry blodget

Indeed, if Henry and Mary had a baby…

I digress.

Cathie Wood compares current crude market to whale oil, predicts it will meet the same fate

“The rise in oil prices this year is a function more of supply than demand. At the turn of the 20th century, whale oil faced the same fate and whale oil prices fluctuated dramatically. If @ARKInvest’s research is correct, oil prices will suffer the same fate as whale oil prices,” Wood said in a tweet Thursday evening.

I am not necessarily a crude oil bull and I am not an energy market supply/demand analyst. But her view sounds way too convenient to her fund’s world view, which is progressive and really REALLY smart.* Crude oil and indeed commodities of all kinds are dumb. Really dumb. But when the economy is okay and too many dollars are chasing them, they go up. I don’t believe it’s all that much more complicated than that.

* Disclaimer: I have traded several of the holdings in her funds, including CRSP, ZM and several others. Also, I currently keep the whole damn fund’s holding’s list on watch. I am not among the best and brightest but neither am I a knuckle dragger, ha ha ha.

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