Yes, I have an interim deflationary view that is anti-commodities. But I am also a chart guy and someone who respects Commitments of Traders and public optimism/pessimism from a sentiment perspective.
I know that there are a lot of Energy bulls out there and there is a certain oil producing block of countries that would like nothing better to crank the prices of crude oil. As yet, OPEC+ is talking the talk and trying to organize itself as oil takes a new cycle low today.
Here is the weekly chart lurking just above clear support.
Here is the seasonal, which in essence turns positive now and stays positive until next October. Please, all due caveats about seasonality and its variations in any given year.
Commercial oil hedgers are nearing an extreme in their reduced net short positions. In this market, they are almost always short to some degree. They hedge, after all.
The public is going the other way, becoming increasingly negative, sentiment-wise.
Bottom Line
Backing out what we (or I) may think we know, there is a combo technical, seasonal and sentiment case developing for a bullish stance on crude oil. Frankly, I may not wait and may position shortly. I just want to look around the Energy sector a bit more. Energy bulls who are secure in the their fundamentals would be viewing this as a buying opportunity in oil, all other things being equal.
