Gold miners watch the “last inflated man standing” start to fail

As we step toward a counter-cyclical macro, the fundamentals will finally improve for gold mining From a June 19th interview I did with with Jordan Roy Byrne with respect to gold stocks, Energy and the proper macro fundamentals for the gold mining sector: In my experience gold stocks will… they can paint ugly charts and then follow through on those ugly charts. But when a … Continue reading Gold miners watch the “last inflated man standing” start to fail

‘Last inflated man standing’ needs a crutch

The Energy sector cracks hard Technically, it is still a major uptrend (by the rising SMA 200). Functionally, it looks like hell. Oil, Gas and the Energy complex were the last inflated men standing, as I’ve been noting for months now. A lower low in XLE would seal the deal. Federal Reserve: winning, duh… * * Not really. They are the ultimate Wrong Way Corrigans. … Continue reading ‘Last inflated man standing’ needs a crutch

agricultural index

Commodities: Bounce or something more?

Commodities have been corrected hard, generally to support It is amazing how compressed the cycles are in the markets these days. But maybe it’s not so surprising when you consider the constant involvement of meddling, manipulating central banks and even governments. Add a dash of hysterical media and the human instinct for knee-jerk herding and voila, there you have it; sentiment in commodities (and the … Continue reading Commodities: Bounce or something more?

vs. SPY: A view of reflationary progress (or lack thereof)

A picture of various reflation-sensitive markets vs. SPY/SPX The picture says that equity-centric reflation markets are struggling to regain uptrends relative to the broad SPY/SPX, and indeed are maintaining the downtrends begun at varying points during the summer cool down. Raw commodities, however, are making a move. Strength in commodities would be an early component of an economically negative Stagflationary backdrop. Later, they’d probably cave … Continue reading vs. SPY: A view of reflationary progress (or lack thereof)

tyx

As COVID-19 Backs Off and Yields Back Up…

Today came the happy – and inevitable – news. Some day on the horizon this effing virus is going to stop hanging over our shoulders. Some sectors especially appreciated the combo of COVID fears down and yields up. Among others, the Airlines, +19%… The pigs, +13%… And Energy, +14%… I happened to buy both CVX and XOM last Thursday on a hunch (certainly not on … Continue reading As COVID-19 Backs Off and Yields Back Up…

A Lack of Energy

That is what this reflation has, a lack of participation from the Energy patch. Daily XLE is trending down by both of its key moving averages. It is curling below the SMA 50 and it’s cooked if it loses 34. Weekly XLE is a classically bearish chart, having bounced to strong long-term resistance before dropping anew. Monthly XLE shows more clearly how heavy that resistance … Continue reading A Lack of Energy

NatGas Breaks to New Lows; Disaster or Massive Opportunity?

I am not an Energy head, but this catches my eye. A subscriber asked if I would focus closer on Energy and I was a little bit dismissive (of Energy, not the subscriber) after having one highlight (and trade) in Energy earlier in the macro relief bounce. This prompted me to take a look at Natty (I already know what Oil is doing), which is … Continue reading NatGas Breaks to New Lows; Disaster or Massive Opportunity?

Request: A Good and Reputable Oil & Gas Authority [w/ edit]

[edit] He is actually looking for other research viewpoints in order to refute or confirm the information in the report below. A global fund manager I do some work with requests a good Oil & Gas newsletter source. By “good” I don’t some some schlep who was promoting PEAK OIL!!! or other such oil price/supply obsessive. I don’t mean someone who is known or famous … Continue reading Request: A Good and Reputable Oil & Gas Authority [w/ edit]

nftrh plus

NFTRH+; Target Being Established for the Energy Sector

This is an NFTRH+ update, but it is sent to the entire list because it is also a macro market update.  Last February we updated the NFTRH+ Energy sector trade.  I took this for a good chunk of the initial surge that soon followed, but have mostly left the sector alone since then. In the ensuing months XLE has been grinding along with an upward … Continue reading NFTRH+; Target Being Established for the Energy Sector

nftrh plus

NFTRH+; Energy Sector Updated

This NFTRH+ update is sent to the entire list as it has more general considerations than just as a trade. Last year we began managing a ‘look ahead’ to XLE’s coming bottom (updating it in January: Future Buy Level Reminder), which we projected to be at the long-term secular bull market channel’s lower line (with wiggle room to the low 50s and long-term lateral support).  … Continue reading NFTRH+; Energy Sector Updated