It’s the Q4-Q1 relief play, baby It’s getting easier and easier now to be bullish, but that is the product of FOMO* in the herds. Hence, today was my last day of buying** fallen items across, in order of preference and general acquisition, the Precious Metals, Emerging Markets, outlier/specialty Commodities, select US sectors and Energy (yup, Energy, the formerly “last inflated man standing”) off of … Continue reading Strategy is working well so far
Natural Gas Futures are down nearly 8% this morning NFTRH 734 had this to say about Natural Gas, along with a chart that showed critical support that is giving way this morning: Natural Gas had better hold here or it’s probably cooked. I don’t know that another buy at 5.50 would work out so well. Also, the seasonal is negative now for Gas. This chart … Continue reading Natural Gas Futures… U.G.L.Y.
 And so a perfectly good topping situation is wrecked. Or is it? Today’s chart would show the potential for a reverse Symmetrical Triangle topping/reversal pattern. But it would also show potential to ding a new high before topping. Regardless, my outstanding profit is now a minuscule one and I’ve taken it on half the position and probably will on the remainder. I generally don’t … Continue reading “Last inflated man standing” feels a bit of heat [w/ edit]
Rightly or wrongly, I have been keeping myself from buying Energy stocks over the last several weeks even though XLE is in a pure daily chart uptrend. XLE is as overbought (by distance from the SMA 50 and by RSI) as it was in May just before it began a significant correction. That does not mean it will correct like that again this time, but … Continue reading Seasonality in Energy
As we step toward a counter-cyclical macro, the fundamentals will finally improve for gold mining From a June 19th interview I did with with Jordan Roy Byrne with respect to gold stocks, Energy and the proper macro fundamentals for the gold mining sector: In my experience gold stocks will… they can paint ugly charts and then follow through on those ugly charts. But when a … Continue reading Gold miners watch the “last inflated man standing” start to fail
The Energy sector cracks hard Technically, it is still a major uptrend (by the rising SMA 200). Functionally, it looks like hell. Oil, Gas and the Energy complex were the last inflated men standing, as I’ve been noting for months now. A lower low in XLE would seal the deal. Federal Reserve: winning, duh… * * Not really. They are the ultimate Wrong Way Corrigans. … Continue reading ‘Last inflated man standing’ needs a crutch
Commodities have been corrected hard, generally to support It is amazing how compressed the cycles are in the markets these days. But maybe it’s not so surprising when you consider the constant involvement of meddling, manipulating central banks and even governments. Add a dash of hysterical media and the human instinct for knee-jerk herding and voila, there you have it; sentiment in commodities (and the … Continue reading Commodities: Bounce or something more?
A picture of various reflation-sensitive markets vs. SPY/SPX The picture says that equity-centric reflation markets are struggling to regain uptrends relative to the broad SPY/SPX, and indeed are maintaining the downtrends begun at varying points during the summer cool down. Raw commodities, however, are making a move. Strength in commodities would be an early component of an economically negative Stagflationary backdrop. Later, they’d probably cave … Continue reading vs. SPY: A view of reflationary progress (or lack thereof)
Today came the happy – and inevitable – news. Some day on the horizon this effing virus is going to stop hanging over our shoulders. Some sectors especially appreciated the combo of COVID fears down and yields up. Among others, the Airlines, +19%… The pigs, +13%… And Energy, +14%… I happened to buy both CVX and XOM last Thursday on a hunch (certainly not on … Continue reading As COVID-19 Backs Off and Yields Back Up…
That is what this reflation has, a lack of participation from the Energy patch. Daily XLE is trending down by both of its key moving averages. It is curling below the SMA 50 and it’s cooked if it loses 34. Weekly XLE is a classically bearish chart, having bounced to strong long-term resistance before dropping anew. Monthly XLE shows more clearly how heavy that resistance … Continue reading A Lack of Energy
I am not an Energy head, but this catches my eye. A subscriber asked if I would focus closer on Energy and I was a little bit dismissive (of Energy, not the subscriber) after having one highlight (and trade) in Energy earlier in the macro relief bounce. This prompted me to take a look at Natty (I already know what Oil is doing), which is … Continue reading NatGas Breaks to New Lows; Disaster or Massive Opportunity?
 He is actually looking for other research viewpoints in order to refute or confirm the information in the report below. A global fund manager I do some work with requests a good Oil & Gas newsletter source. By “good” I don’t some some schlep who was promoting PEAK OIL!!! or other such oil price/supply obsessive. I don’t mean someone who is known or famous … Continue reading Request: A Good and Reputable Oil & Gas Authority [w/ edit]
Ref. the bullish bounce pattern in crude oil we noted in NFTRH 536. The target for WTI crude is around 60 (oil is currently around 54). So assuming that the stock market bounce has further to go * or will at least rotate through various sector bounces, let’s take a look at the Energy sector SPDR XLE, which also has a pattern. XLE cleared the … Continue reading NFTRH+; Energy
For me – and NFTRH in general – Energy has been an ‘avoid’ all year. Currently, XLE is on a daily chart breakdown that it tried and failed to remedy yesterday. The monthly chart shows a long-term uptrend that is intact. Now the Head and 2 Shoulders drawn in is really just TA ‘men who stare at charts’ type stuff… unless XLE loses 60. This … Continue reading Precarious Energy Sector