Oil’s Seasonal Pattern

I was entertaining the idea of adding USO or some other crude oil related exposure this morning due to the chart of WTIC, per NFTRH 569’s Commodities segment. The gap up was on hype, but the hype was based on a real event, was it not? So it would be fundamental, at least for a period of time.

The chart, when tuning out all of what we think we might know turned constructive last week as it burst upward, began releasing the hype (and the momos) the next day and now declines to test the moving averages. I thought it a decent prospect for a future inflation trade. But…


Then I checked the seasonal averages over at Sentimentrader and became nonplussed by the Q4 performance over the course of the past 30 years of data. These averages all too often do not play out in any given year, but there it is anyway. 100% fact; crude oil averages a hard down in October and November.

crude oil

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