NFTRH+; Long-term Yields and the Market Rotations Tied to Them

We have managed the 30yr yield Continuum all the way up to the caution area (2.5% to 2.7%). I believe that there will likely be higher to go in yields out ahead, but with everybody on the inflation theme and by extension the bond bear/rising yields theme an interim cool down can come at any point. Here is the 30yr yield’s daily chart. This week’s … Continue reading NFTRH+; Long-term Yields and the Market Rotations Tied to Them

What a Long and Not so Strange Trip it’s Been for the Gold Miners

The Gold Miner correction was well earned, but it was not a bubble Even today there is some pablum out there talking about how if inflation is good for gold it is especially good for gold miners. I will simply repeat once again that if gold usually does not benefit fundamentally by cyclical inflation (i.e. inflation promoted for and currently working toward economic goals) the … Continue reading What a Long and Not so Strange Trip it’s Been for the Gold Miners

NFTRH; Gold, Silver & USD Futures, and Discussion

Against a backdrop where Zero Hedge notes that 77% of Americans are worried about soaring inflation…   Just look at the graphic in the tweet above. A big rat is eating US dollars. So sure, the public is on board the inflation theme. But right up to the minute the public is actually starting to love itself some US dollars again according to Sentimentrader‘s Optimism … Continue reading NFTRH; Gold, Silver & USD Futures, and Discussion

NFTRH+; A Boring Stock in an Exciting Pattern

Back in late December I added a boring drugstore (WBA) for a trade that worked well off the bottom. Here is another boring drugstore in a different type of setup, having been bullish since November but attempting a significant breakout. Let’s look at the daily, weekly and monthly charts for some perspective. CVS daily has created tentative support at 75 by taking out the last … Continue reading NFTRH+; A Boring Stock in an Exciting Pattern

Aerospace & Defense Sector Works on Changing Trend

Aerospace & Defense sector is doing well lately I originally entered this space per this NFTRH+ update (now public) as a potential trend changer. It’s another ‘so far, so good’ situation. The pattern has continued on, but it needs to clear the November high and leave it behind in order to make a clear trend change. NOC was added for this bowl pattern, needing to … Continue reading Aerospace & Defense Sector Works on Changing Trend

Hedge Fund Blows Up, Banks Get Whacked

Archegos Capital Management Gets Margin Calls, Defaults I sense an opportunity of some kind here as a hedge fund blows up and exposed banks get hammered. Now, if I can only figure out what that opportunity is. Banks warn of ‘significant losses’ as they exit positions with large U.S. hedge fund It’ll take some time to settle in, but it feels like buying the Pigs … Continue reading Hedge Fund Blows Up, Banks Get Whacked

NFTRH 648, Out Now

It includes an opening piece on gold stocks that I may publish publicly later on. It was inspired by two things; 1) a talk with a friend while on the road last week and 2) some stuff I read at a gold website talking about how bullish the fundamentals are for gold stocks right now. Hint: they are not. Lot’s more to boot. For “best … Continue reading NFTRH 648, Out Now

Commodities and Inflation Expectations

The CRB index is in a minor disconnect from inflation expectations (RINF) It’s a disconnect on the short-term, at least. If/as the reflation continues CRB could have some catching up to do. CRB has been a near perfect side car to the inflation expectations (IE) cycle until recently. Crude oil’s volatility of late has contributed to the ruptured connection, along with base metals getting roughed … Continue reading Commodities and Inflation Expectations

NFTRH+; USD and the 30yr Yield Continuum

The US dollar has taken out the daily SMA 200. It’s still in a major downtrend but it’s also still bouncing and therefore, capable of eliminating the downtrend. To do that it would need to clear the noted resistance line and take out the September 2020 high. Meanwhile, importantly for the reflation trades the 30yr Treasury yield appears to be breaking its flag (as is … Continue reading NFTRH+; USD and the 30yr Yield Continuum