We have managed the 30yr yield Continuum all the way up to the caution area (2.5% to 2.7%). I believe that there will likely be higher to go in yields out ahead, but with everybody on the inflation theme and by extension the bond bear/rising yields theme an interim cool down can come at any point. Here is the 30yr yield’s daily chart. This week’s … Continue reading NFTRH+; Long-term Yields and the Market Rotations Tied to Them
The Gold Miner correction was well earned, but it was not a bubble Even today there is some pablum out there talking about how if inflation is good for gold it is especially good for gold miners. I will simply repeat once again that if gold usually does not benefit fundamentally by cyclical inflation (i.e. inflation promoted for and currently working toward economic goals) the … Continue reading What a Long and Not so Strange Trip it’s Been for the Gold Miners
Gold and Silver CoTs will likely show continued improvement on Friday As gold continues to break down from the beer flag its Commitments of Traders will likely show improvement on Friday, from an already improved reading last week. Tuesday (today) is the day of data harvest and I am not sure if the data will be inclusive of today. But if it is, expect a … Continue reading CoT to Goldbugs: “Cheer up”
No, not that picture! The big macro view picture of the 30yr Treasury yield. Ole’ Bill is lookin’ good in his bond bear call so far after a recent hiccup. But the BOND KING has not proven his case yet either. There is a little decision point up ahead. A decision point is just that, a decision between what has been for decades and something … Continue reading Ponder the Picture
Against a backdrop where Zero Hedge notes that 77% of Americans are worried about soaring inflation… Just look at the graphic in the tweet above. A big rat is eating US dollars. So sure, the public is on board the inflation theme. But right up to the minute the public is actually starting to love itself some US dollars again according to Sentimentrader‘s Optimism … Continue reading NFTRH; Gold, Silver & USD Futures, and Discussion
Back in late December I added a boring drugstore (WBA) for a trade that worked well off the bottom. Here is another boring drugstore in a different type of setup, having been bullish since November but attempting a significant breakout. Let’s look at the daily, weekly and monthly charts for some perspective. CVS daily has created tentative support at 75 by taking out the last … Continue reading NFTRH+; A Boring Stock in an Exciting Pattern
With gold and silver getting roughed up today I was looking at my FNV position earlier and wondering why it was so strong while most gold stocks were also in the red. Then HUI firmed a bit and I decided to check its status vs. gold (GLD used here). Apparently FNV was trying to lead something. It’s just an in-day move back above the SMA … Continue reading NFTRH+; A hint at least…
Bear (Beer) flags in two seemingly unrelated items But are they actually unrelated? Neither of them likes the rise in long-term yields currently ongoing. So there’s a common thread. The ratio of growth stocks to value stocks and the Gold ETF each sport broken down bear flags. The ratio is bouncing to see if it can undo its flag while GLD appears on its way … Continue reading A Couple of Bear Flags…
Aerospace & Defense sector is doing well lately I originally entered this space per this NFTRH+ update (now public) as a potential trend changer. It’s another ‘so far, so good’ situation. The pattern has continued on, but it needs to clear the November high and leave it behind in order to make a clear trend change. NOC was added for this bowl pattern, needing to … Continue reading Aerospace & Defense Sector Works on Changing Trend
Home builders MHO and PHM looking bullish MHO was added back in February for this bullish weekly chart, per NFTRH’s Stocks of Interest segment. it’s tacked on 15% so far. PHM was added last week for this daily chart (it’s weekly is pretty similar to the above as well). So far it’s at 9%, a good start. Needs follow-through. It’s not a group I have … Continue reading Hangin’ Wit Da Homies
Archegos Capital Management Gets Margin Calls, Defaults I sense an opportunity of some kind here as a hedge fund blows up and exposed banks get hammered. Now, if I can only figure out what that opportunity is. Banks warn of ‘significant losses’ as they exit positions with large U.S. hedge fund It’ll take some time to settle in, but it feels like buying the Pigs … Continue reading Hedge Fund Blows Up, Banks Get Whacked
It includes an opening piece on gold stocks that I may publish publicly later on. It was inspired by two things; 1) a talk with a friend while on the road last week and 2) some stuff I read at a gold website talking about how bullish the fundamentals are for gold stocks right now. Hint: they are not. Lot’s more to boot. For “best … Continue reading NFTRH 648, Out Now
The CRB index is in a minor disconnect from inflation expectations (RINF) It’s a disconnect on the short-term, at least. If/as the reflation continues CRB could have some catching up to do. CRB has been a near perfect side car to the inflation expectations (IE) cycle until recently. Crude oil’s volatility of late has contributed to the ruptured connection, along with base metals getting roughed … Continue reading Commodities and Inflation Expectations
The US dollar has taken out the daily SMA 200. It’s still in a major downtrend but it’s also still bouncing and therefore, capable of eliminating the downtrend. To do that it would need to clear the noted resistance line and take out the September 2020 high. Meanwhile, importantly for the reflation trades the 30yr Treasury yield appears to be breaking its flag (as is … Continue reading NFTRH+; USD and the 30yr Yield Continuum
