The US dollar has taken out the daily SMA 200. It’s still in a major downtrend but it’s also still bouncing and therefore, capable of eliminating the downtrend. To do that it would need to clear the noted resistance line and take out the September 2020 high.
Meanwhile, importantly for the reflation trades the 30yr Treasury yield appears to be breaking its flag (as is the 10yr) after taking the obligatory pullback on the recent Bill Gross hype (and it’s own over-done technical status). It is a sort of conflict because USD is, or at least has been for much of the last year, anti the reflation trades while yields have traveled with the reflation trades.
On the monthly chart we can see that the yield ticked the bottom of the 2.5% to 2.7% caution zone but there is more room to run before the monthly EMA 100 limiter (currently a hair above 2.7%) is reached. Then it could be either the death of the dollar (if the limiter is broken decisively for the first time in this chart’s history) or provide more strength for the dollar if market liquidity starts to become an issue and the inflation starts to fail, as would be indicated by a retreat in the yield from at or around the limiter.
