It would seem so, as the current NFTRH target awaits despite a hawking Fed While day to day it can be frustrating watching a plan play out in a volatile market, we have nailed the interest rate backdrop that the now hawking Fed has been whipsawed by and is trying to catch up to. But over educated eggheads will be over educated eggheads, and as … Continue reading 30yr on the way to 2.5%?
Per this post yesterday the 2yr Treasury yield has taken out the 2018 high and a secular bull market trend (lower highs in yields) has been broken in short-term bonds. Today we see the 30yr yield right at the 2018 high, which would officially end the long-term Treasury bond bull market. Recall that if/when this happens our plan includes the prospect that a tightening of … Continue reading NFTRH+; Important Treasury bond (macro) update
Watching two elements of the macro markets we note that they are playing ball with each other nicely. As the 30yr yield looks upward to 2.5% to 2.7%… …its big picture is on track to reach the limiters. While the CRB index ticked a new cycle high yesterday. With its big picture target of 270+ in view. This target does not need to be a … Continue reading NFTRH+; Almost too perfect
We have not discussed the 30yr Treasury yield ‘Continuum’ for a while because it has been clustering in a consolidation as the frustrating macro of 2021 continues into 2022. If I am a market watcher hoping for near-term resolution (and thus, direction) I am hoping for this consolidation to break up or down. Today, the hint is up, which is fine. Please Mr. Yield, just … Continue reading NFTRH+; The next leg?
While it appears that the next and possibly final leg* of the inflation is underway, the US dollar and Gold/Silver ratio (our macro indicators that would guide the other way toward liquidity problems and possible deflation scare) have not given up, although the GSR has weakened appreciably of late. USD (DXY) halted at target #1 back in September and has been dropping within its intact … Continue reading NFTRH+; Macro update
Quick pics and brief comments. SPX recovers to near an all-time high after a sentiment micro-twitch, NDX ticks a new high and SOX recovers above the SMA 50, regardless of its internal divergences (e.g. Semi Equipment). The world is bouncing. Since this is occurring above the rising SMA 200 it is still technically intact, unattractive pattern notwithstanding. Commodities (DBC) are bouncing but still potentially in … Continue reading NFTRH+; Today’s market
The US government finally got together on a new $550b spending (more cost-push inflation) plan. It includes spending of money the government never had until the Fed printed it and it is going to the items noted above in the title. In pre-market inflationists are buying silver (normal), copper (normal), Palladium (normal), Platinum (semi-normal) and gold (normal, for those who buy gold for the wrong … Continue reading NFTRH; Roads, bridges, ports, water, internet, power, environment and… gold?
The way it is shaking out as I see it, it’s the 30yr yield Continuum’s right side shoulder (which, if it manifests and turns upward would be consistent with new inflationary pressure) vs. the 2 riders of global liquidity destruction, USD and the Gold/Silver ratio which, if they continue upward would signal pervasive corrections (at worst) or Goldilocks and its ‘not too hot, not too … Continue reading NFTRH+; Updating the warring indicators
As long-term yields decline… We have a headline this morning that is so in accordance with the times. Where just a few months ago the hysteria was toward inflation and runaway bond yields (ha ha ha), today we have the other thing in play. You can always count on the MSfM to tell you what you needed to know well after you needed to know … Continue reading Decision point
We used the 30yr yield Continuum to project a pullback in the inflation/reflation trades and associated inflation hysteria as the yield approached 2.5% back in late winter. We then planned for a roughly symmetrical right side shoulder to be put in to go with the one on the left side of a theoretical inverted H&S. Well, there it is… The right side shoulder should have … Continue reading NFTRH+; Macro status from one important perspective
I went to the track for some exercise, came back and yields had reversed back up and HUI back down, in-day. It is a microcosm of what I expect in a larger sense (than one day) if/when yields turn back up and put the inflation induced reflation trades back on. Here is a picture of HUI and the inverse of the 30yr yield. It is … Continue reading NFTRH+; Yields & Gold Stocks
30yr Treasury yield and markets/internals tied to it What markets and market internals are dependent upon an inflationary rise in long-term yields? Anyone? Beuller? For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed interim market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. You can also keep up to date … Continue reading Your Macro guide, the 30yr Treasury yield
Reformed Broker on a coming (someday) taper: Of course they’re going to talk about tapering So, they’re ready to start thinking about thinking about tapering. It’s good that they’re acknowledging the pressures in the real economy and their role in it. Hmmm, let me think… what could appropriately describe the Fed’s role in the inflationary recovery and one day, its end? Hmmm… Oh, I know! … Continue reading “Thinking about thinking about tapering”
30-year yield threatens to rise anew Here is the daily chart of the 30yr yield. Looks like a flag breaking out to me. By converting the above to a monthly view, we have our trusty Continuum chart. If this little hesitation (if you will) in yields and associated stock market pullback play out to the extent that the Continuum allows, there will be another thrust … Continue reading Continuum to… Continue?