Per this post yesterday the 2yr Treasury yield has taken out the 2018 high and a secular bull market trend (lower highs in yields) has been broken in short-term bonds. Today we see the 30yr yield right at the 2018 high, which would officially end the long-term Treasury bond bull market.
Recall that if/when this happens our plan includes the prospect that a tightening of financial conditions and a cooling in the economy could bring down inflation expectations and reverse the yield. But even if that happens bonds will have set markers for the future and they are bearish for bonds, bullish for yields.
A secular backbone to the long-term mode of operations for our bond market manipulating Fed (in order to regulate and control markets) will have ended.
This is a big deal because there will be new rules for the future about stock markets, commodities, precious metals and currencies. In other words, something will have changed in a major way and that is why we’ve watched this chart for all these years. To know when a secular tool stays intact or when it breaks. It’s breaking with respect to the forward long-term horizon, even if yields pull back this year, possibly to test the breakout from the limiters and the neckline (2.5% to 2.8%).