Broad US Stock Market
Here is the multi-index weekly chart. Most are above former resistance but... where are higher highs? Show me higher highs, Jerry.
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April 6, 2016
NFTRH+; Russell 2000 Short Setup
Here is the (weekly) Russell 2000 chart we used in 2015 to show that a moving average cross and a similar looking pattern have occurred that resulted in severe downside in 2008. I think we can disqualify the 2011 ‘comp’ because that moving average cross was quickly reversed and the current one, despite the big rally, is nowhere near being undone.
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April 6, 2016
TIP, TLT and Their Messages, 1 Week on…
[edit] Man, I am a typo making machine when I am in a hurry… :-(
A little over a week ago we had a subscriber update (now public) on TIP, TLT and some signals for the markets. Let’s update the charts from the update.
Nominal TLT and TIP continue with their “bullish slant” by the weekly view.
The ratio between them, an inflation expectations indicator, continues to be weak but I continue to favor nominal TIP for any long-term T bond exposure due to forward inflation expectations that I expect to whip up eventually. But this chart is indicative of the new downturn in commodities and another downturn in the ‘inflation trade’ we have expected. It was just a bounce after all. Weekly…
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April 5, 2016
High Yield: Risk Going ‘OFF’?
This little short-term pattern does not look too appealing as HYG looks foiled on its 3rd attempt at the 200 day moving average. High Yield vs. Treasury is dropping below…
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April 5, 2016
Healthcare Revisited
Regarding the recent posts on Healthcare, I took the profit on PFE [edit: AMGN targets higher but taking that profit too] for two reasons; 1) As noted in NFTRH 389…
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April 5, 2016
Belated Payrolls/ISM Thoughts
Last week when I was not doing my own market positioning or writing subscriber updates, I was bringing Biiwii back to life, so on Friday I skipped the entirety of…
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April 4, 2016
NFTRH 389 Out Now
As noted in yesterday's post, doing the work in the weekend report changed me. Maybe just by an increment as I had been thinking I was inching closer to a…
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April 3, 2016
Day Traders Anonymous
[edit] The reason I put so much work into the report is because I want to be able to show that work on a week by week basis. I want…
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April 2, 2016
Better Than That
So we finally got these songs as done as they will ever be. In fact, we named the CD 'Finally!'. You know, we popped it out of the CD burner…
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April 1, 2016
Healthcare Sector Updated
A week ago we had an NFTRH update (now public) about the Healthcare sector. With a nod to this morning's Market Psych 101 article, I was at a point of…
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April 1, 2016
Deprogram Yourself
The title of this article is not an assumption that you, astute reader, are little more than a robot following the direct and implied commands of other robots when trying to make logical sense of the state of modern financial markets. Personally, I have found that I need to stay on a path of post-deprogramming maintenance in order to stay right with a complex market backdrop.
On an inward-looking basis, we as investors and traders are faulty humans going up against robots (Ref. Rise of the Quantitative Robots) that are much smarter than we are with numbers, with data mining and with extrapolation. What do we have, puny little human brains with all associated biases, ego distortions and other faults? Yes, that is us.
We can mitigate these things by committing to double check our egos, first and foremost making sure we realize that we will err, we are not the best there is and the market does not care even one little bit about us. We can commit to being the best ‘me’ we can be.
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April 1, 2016