At least the gold and silver held in the Central Fund of Canada's vault is a bargain as it was still selling for a 5.5% discount to NAV at the…
I am taking partial profits in the gold stock sector because those who could not hold off anymore seem to be buying in. That is capitulation. One item I'll take…
One of the least desirable aspects of my job is in hearing from people who seem semi-traumatized by what they are reading out there in the off the beaten track…
We do the usual macro coverage and per a subscriber's request also add in some extensive charting of individual gold stocks. I added a few of my own 'relative quality'…
I'm leaving the gold CoT out because it did not change much from its bearish state.* Silver on the other hand, saw another week of net improvement as of Tuesday's…
Yesterday I noted how Almaden rocketed higher without the miserly bidder who failed to fill the day before. But that's casino patron talk. You're gonna win some and you're gonna…
We do in depth analysis on a weekly basis (and every day in-week) because there is no substitute for working to be right with the market’s evolving situation as opposed to making bias or ego stoked calls in hopes of being right.
The current situation has seen some calling ‘bullish’ on the stock market despite a still intact bear trend (noted repeatedly in NFTRH), people going bullish on commodities despite their “bounce only” (also noted repeatedly) status in the absence of real, market-based inflation signals (which I do think are coming soon) and global markets bouncing within bear trends of varying degrees.
But the good feelings of the last 1.5 months have been indicated as a counter-trend bounce to reset the unsustainable bearishness of January and February’s downside, although the bounce has come very close to the point where it could negate the bear trend. As yet, it has not.
Sometimes we win, other times we lose and still other times we sit there and think 'Oh #%$@&!!!!, why did I nickel and dime this thing yesterday in trying to…
If we are correct in viewing the beaten down US manufacturing sector as a better place to be long (ref. recent ISM data) than the over valued likes of the general market, then we would want to focus on ‘best of breed’ in the sector. I have often noted Faro as being a great and innovative company. I have had a lot of negative things to say about 3D Printing as an investment destination (though the technology itself is fabulous). But Stratasys is in my opinion best of breed in this beaten down space.
In the weekend report we used weekly charts to show that gold has taken a good chunk of its apparent price risk out as key support was not too far away beginning in the 1180’s. Silver had lost the breakout above the would-be supportive EMA 55 and HUI was well above key support, now 140 (lateral support at October highs) to 148 (gently rising EMA 55). We have also been noting 211 as the point that greatly improves the prospects of a bull market, technically (I think the probabilities are that one is in progress, but the technicals are what they are).
As a market manager I stay calm about it and use it to the best of my ability. As a human I get annoyed by it and what it does…
Here's the XLV weekly chart again. It's closer still to the top channel line. The daily view is kissing the SMA 200. I sold XLV but still hold my fair…
On a similar theme to the earlier update whereby the long bond is seeing extreme relative short interest by Commercial traders, let’s compare the 30 year vs. the 2 year.
The 30 year shows a big build up in net shorts by the Commercial Hedgers.
Because I want to look around as many corners as possible (without donning the tin foil hat), I had a thought that is at odds with the view that the bear phase will resume/continue. It is also at odds with a bullish view of gold for the near-term.
So please consider it a mental exercise, the likes of which can be healthy if we keep these things in perspective and in their proper place in the probabilities tool box.