Inflation Trade, part 2

Part 2 appears to be taking off now after the summer cool down. But part 2 is not going to play out like part 1. It will be more difficult…

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NFTRH+; inflation signals

These pictures paint the taper-talking Fed as behind the curve, literally and figuratively. Yield Curve: steepening Long-term Treasury yields: rising Inflation expectations: rising Broad Commodity complex: rising (mainly driven by…

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NFTRH 674, out now

While including some personal editorial comments about gold and the precious metals sector #674 does all the real work with respect to the whole macro shootin' match. I have a…

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NFTRH+; direction may be chosen

The 10yr Treasury yield appears to be choosing its direction, breaking above the moving averages and hitting a new recovery high on the daily chart. The 30yr yield is lagging,…

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CPI: Fed-obsessed Kabuki Dance cools

CPI comes in cooler, market cheers... So CPI is cool enough to settle the nerves of Fed-obsessed casino patrons and machines alike. Consumer prices post smaller than expected increase in…

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PPI: A fitting end to the ‘summer cool down’?

PPI +8.3% from August 2020 Producer inflation accelerated in August... So the dominant trend (in place over decades) is for declining Treasury yields with the implication of structural deflation. I…

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