Aye aye aye, it’s good to be back at my work station. But its nice out and I need some exercise, so here’s the screenshot to hint at NFTRH 703’s (IMO) very helpful contents. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade … Continue reading NFTRH 703, out now
Another report just doing its job and doing it pretty well judging by how it helped me gain personal perspective on some key items. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed interim market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. You can also keep up to date … Continue reading NFTRH 651, Out Now
A few charts taking a look at some some hidden global macro views. The weekly chart of ACWX & inverse USD tells you all you need to know about the strong reserve currency and relative global stock impairment. When you look at this you realize that Trump is in effect trying to help global stocks more than US stocks when he beats on Jerome Powell … Continue reading Global Views Beneath the Surface of Things
Here are some global market ETFs vs. SPY. What’s most important on these charts is not really TA, but the trends as indicated by the 50 and 200 day moving averages. China large caps have bounced again but the trend is down and today it’s taking a hit. EM is much the same. It’s a ‘W’ bounce pattern, the US dollar is weak and yet … Continue reading ‘vs. SPY’… Global Edition
Here are some charts from the NFTRH Global Market Internals segment, much of which is used to gauge the trends of global markets vs. the US (SPY/SPX). We also keep track of other global macro indicators in order to combine the relative trends of various markets with a global macro view. I am posting the segment here so as to have a little more time … Continue reading Global Market Internals
My first global investment destination of the current phase was China per a post earlier today. Positions were taken in Q4 2018 as the two massive trade warriors duked it out but the China Large Caps ETF held its long-term series of higher highs and higher lows, along with long-term lateral support. China seemed like a contrarian no-brainer, but it was only the first of … Continue reading The Global Macro Trade Continues Into Q2
USD (UUP) is firm, as we all know. Deflation is coming, as we all (think) we know. But certain global markets that have been pressured by the strong USD are not buying the USD breakout; at least not yet. They have been firm over the last week and in the cases of EM and Asia, are grappling with the 50 day moving averages. Is this … Continue reading Who’s Lying, Uncle Buck or Those Counter to It?
This article is edited slightly from the original to clean up some wording and make points a little clearer. All through the summer NFTRH had a “top-test” view on the primary US stock index, the S&P 500. We were 100% right on that; SPX spent all summer grinding upward to that test. That is where the would-be market genius aspect of the analysis ends because … Continue reading Pieces of the US & Global Stock Market Puzzle Come Together
Because after all, the reason we have these bull markets is because of the heroic <sarcasm alert> acts of Central Banking monetary scientists led by the big brained Bernanke and now fanned out all over the developed world. It’s literally ‘give us inflation or give us death’. The Baltic Dry shipping cost index had been on a hard decline until this week. It has implications … Continue reading Checkup on the Global Inflation Trade
A weekly view of some global markets vs. SPY shows Europe holding key support and bouncing a bit, China large caps holding below key resistance but above a key moving average, Canadian stocks far down but bouncing (with an interesting currency dynamic brewing if the CAD tops out), Russia looking best of all and the EM, which had looked best of all, fading now and … Continue reading ‘vs. SPY’… Global and Domestic
There is short-term and there is long-term. Short-term, an indicator of positive inflationary cyclicality looks set to bounce. Long-term, it is locked well below key resistance. Joining this long-term Gloomy Gus indicator is another that we used in 2013 to gauge an oncoming economic UP cycle. It is working its way toward economic DOWN, slowly but surely over many months. There’s lots of other valuable … Continue reading NFTRH 347 Out Now
A snapshot of current technical status…
GLD made a bearish breakdown below the equiv. of gold 1180. To even think about repairing the technicals, GLD would have to get above 115 at a minimum (gold above 1180).
A technical snapshot of key ETF’s…
GLD has bounced from critical support (equiv. of gold 1180). MACD triggered up is positive.
Last week the Silver-Gold ratio (SGR) failed to get with the bear memo as the sector got a hard shakeout, and look what happened. This week through the ups and the downs silver has continued to lead. If it gets through the red dotted line we might say bye bye to the precious metals complex, leaving the smart guys schooling people about why to avoid … Continue reading Silver, Gold and a Global View