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Global Market Internals

Here are some charts from the NFTRH Global Market Internals segment, much of which is used to gauge the trends of global markets vs. the US (SPY/SPX). We also keep track of other global macro indicators in order to combine the relative trends of various markets with a global macro view.

I am posting the segment here so as to have a little more time on Easter (no, I am not particularly or conventionally religious but family is family) by trimming NFTRH 548 to its more immediately necessary information.

Beginning with the relative market trends (vs. SPY/SPX) I will not put my words in other than to state up front that the blue SMA 50 represents an intermediate trend and the black SMA 200 a longer-term trend. So for example on FXI/SPY there is an attempted intermediate trend change going on but a longer-term downtrend is still in force.

The next few beg some words.

It seemed counter intuitive to me that the Yen and NIKK/SPX had traveled more or less together for much of 2019. Just lately that seems to be getting remedied. Let’s see if it sticks.

TSX/SPX is down trending although the SMA 50 just crossed above the SMA 200.

Of more importance to the macro is the state of Canada’s TSX-V vs. TSX which, in a word… sucks. This is one chart that has me in caution mode on a global macro inflation party festivus.

Nominal ‘V’ is not so good either as we noted earlier in the week.

The World vs. SPY has journeyed pretty reliably with the inverse USD. The World needs the USD to weaken in order to begin to out perform the US.

Meanwhile, the Baltic Dry shipping cost index has been rising (modestly) for several weeks now, in line with the rally in global stock markets. It is certainly not compelling at this time, however.

As we noted in NFTRH a couple of weeks ago China’s Manufacturing PMI (confidence) shot upward in March. This must become a trend as opposed to a spike to keep this global macro driver intact.

China as an exporter of global inflation/deflation exported some of Thing 1 in March. That’ll need to become a trend too for a global macro trade.

Finally on China, the consumer has been pepping up since the depths of a Trade War mini-hysteria. It’s a trend. Now, is it a trend that will pull the above two graphs into trends as well? That will be necessary for the global picture (at least emerging, Asia, resource economies, etc.) to begin to out perform.

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